false claims and Kremlin narrative
Last week Trump indicated that Zelensky's survey values were low and that he would soon be pending elections. On Tuesday evening, however, he continued and wrongly claimed that the war leader would only have an approval rate of 4 percent and Ukraine started the war. Such claims are closely approaching the speech bubbles of the Kremlin, which has always tried to present the rapprochement of Ukraine to NATO as the reason for the tremendous attack in 2022 and to brand Zelensky as illegitimate because no elections were carried out in the state of war.
Zelensky's attempts to appease Trump
Zelensky has flattered Trump as someone for months who can bring peace through strength. Kyiv was aware that the rhetoric of Trump's campaign team could bring about a fundamental change for Ukraine, but together with the European allies, they hoped that Trump could avoid a collapse of security on the continent, similar to the chaos at Kabul Airport, and would be considered to keep Russia in chess. In the background, however, there is a risk that the controversial relationship from Trump's first term - when Zelensky did not meet what Trump asked in a "perfect" phone call, which led to the survey - would throw a dark cloud over her future interactions. This cloud has now significantly thrown its shadows, and Ukraine is subsequently affected.
The lawsuit of the Ukrainian President
Zelensky has partially defused his comments about Trump, who is in the "disinformed space" (although he has always emphasized that he has great respect for this US president and the American people). But Trump was not afraid to make further deeply hurt statements and found that the "dictator" had to act faster to save Ukraine and found that he was sitting on a "levy".
The crisis situation of Ukraine
The existential dilemma for Ukraine is now whether it has the freedom to choose between her war president and its main supporter, the United States. Is there still enough stability on both sides?
The new challenges for Zelensky
Now Zelensky is exposed to the hard judgment of the most powerful man in the world, who regularly snatches a flood of Kremlin narratives, which could come from a source that is still unknown to him and could change the course of the greatest war in Europe since the 1940s. The financial support of the Trump administration for Ukraine-without which the survival of Ukraine is really on the brink-is now at risk. Trump repeatedly incorrectly referred to the fact that the help for Ukraine is "missing" and that Zelensky was on a "lard pot". He prepares a narrative for the American people, which will probably end with a reduction in help.
The difficulties of elections in times of war
Why does Zelensky, who spent half of his six years in office in office with the fight against a war, which he initially did not consider likely, just not just a choice and ends the discussion about his legitimacy? Elections in Ukraine have been difficult in the past two decades, even during peace. Russia interfered in 2004 and manipulated the elections, which led to massive protests and raised the candidates supported by Russia.
In the state of war, elections are exposed to war law. A ceasefire proposed by Trump's team could lead to the fact that they are exposed to and soldiers receive freedom to vote. But what about the millions of Ukrainians abroad as refugees? What about the necessary election reforms and emergency measures for a legitimate, modern choice? Should this be done hastily to achieve a quick result, or should it be carefully worked out to achieve the highest international standards? What happens if a Russian drone attack or rocket attacks disrupt the election day? It is possible that everything goes wrong - and this will probably also happen that way.
The political consequences of an election process in the state of war
The result would be irrevocably enveloped by doubts, which could continue to undermine the mandate, the lack of Zelensky, or strengthen an alternative that also has no full legitimacy. This would sow chaos on the front lines, kitchen tables and in the cafes of Kiev and in the Ukrainian diaspora across Europe. This is exactly what the Kremlin wants: political pressure to tighten Ukraine's difficulties on the front.
The opaque motifs of Trump
It is becoming increasingly difficult to decipher Trump's motifs. When it comes to geopolitical security and NATO, you cannot bluff; Your opponents will perceive weakness in an alliance and will no longer fear if you try to assert yourself against your own allies with a tough negotiating position. A fragile peace cannot be imposed on a country that fears the survival of its borders and its citizens. You cannot undermine a war leader and at the same time expect his troops to not let up on the front lines. Only a strategic interest was served by Trump's radical redesign of the global order in the past two weeks: that of the one opponent that NATO was originally supposed to counteract.
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