Russia benefits from chaos despite the loss of a Middle East allied

Russia benefits from chaos despite the loss of a Middle East allied

The complex relationship of the Kremlin to the Middle East has always been shaped by a certain tension. On the one hand, Russia's alliances and economic influence in the region are traditionally strong. On the other hand, Russia benefits as one of the largest petroleum and natural gas producers if there are problems in this high-energy area and the markets are unsettled. This is exactly what happens while the Kremlin watches how its Iranian ally through Israeli air raids is strongly weakened and Russia benefits from the consequences at the same time.

The role of Iran as a strategic partner

At first glance, Russia seems to lose a lot. Iran has proven to be a particularly useful “strategic partner” for the Kremlin, not only because of the shared dislocation of Western values and influence, but also because Iran has supplied the Russian military with a variety of Shahed drones that enabled the tireless fire of Ukraine. Much of the drone production has now shifted to Russia. But in view of the fact that Ukrainian drones now penetrate deep behind the front lines into Russian production facilities, the once reliable Iranian delivery could soon be missing.

The diplomatic responsibility of the Kremlin

For the Kremlin, it is also humiliating to have to stand by, like another important Middle East partner, suffer from violent attacks without being ready to intervene. Of course, Moscow submitted powerful explanations and condemned Israel's attacks on Iran's nuclear systems as "illegally". It was also found that these attacks are "unacceptable threats to international security". In addition, the western countries were accused of taking advantage of the Situation to "pay political invoices".

The advantages of the conflict for Russia

But Russia's supposed alliance with Iran never has the defense of the Islamic Republic, and there was no offer of Moscow for military support. It is undeniable that a fall of the Iranian regime, which now seems to be an open goal of Israel, would add to the growing list of the lost alliances and clientele states of the Kremlin, which includes Iraq, Libya and finally Syria.

Here again the peculiar tension comes into play: the situation for Moscow is not as catastrophic as it seems. The current Middle East conflict even plays the Kremlin in the cards. In addition to the welcome financial profit, which comes from the increasing crude oil price, the conflict between Iran and Israel also opens diplomatic opportunities for Russia that has been internationally isolated due to the Ukraine War.

Russia as a diplomatic actor

Russia has never seen itself as a secondary actor in international diplomacy, but as an important player with a legitimate place at the negotiating table, together with the USA and China. Now the Kremlin has the opportunity to pull together with the United States and to position itself as an indispensable partner in regional stabilization. As the only important politician with a direct connection to the Iranians, Israelis and the USA, Russia's President Vladimir Putin is already using his central role in signaling his willingness, acting as an intermediary and presenting Russia as a significant power factor in the Middle East.

A new dialogue between the USA and Russia

In a recent phone call with the White House, Putin President Donald Trump reminded how Russia has long been a US ally in relation to the Iranian nuclear question-a clear indication that he is ready to be again. After the conversation, the White House seemed open to this idea: President Trump said the willingness to consider the Russian president as potential mediators in conflict. Since Trump's second term in office, Washington and Moscow desperately have been trying to expand their relationships beyond the narrow focus on the Ukraine War. The fate of Iran and his nuclear potential has unexpectedly come back to the fore - in addition to the Arctic, economic cooperation and space travel - as another possible area of interest.

The effects on Ukraine

for the Kremlin - and perhaps also for President Trump - this is an important advantage. Unfortunately, it doesn't look so rosy for the struck Ukraine. With an escalating crisis in the Middle East and the signs that the United States may increase its direct participation, global attention suddenly distracts from the continuing war in Ukraine- where the intensive Russian drone and rocket attacks demand victim numbers to the destruction, which is set up in Israel and Iran. For a while, the focus seems to be on the role of the Kremlin as a potential peace piano in the Middle East, while his own war events nearby gets out of sight.