Russia is planning military structure in Libya: Danger for NATO and Europe!

Russia is planning military structure in Libya: Danger for NATO and Europe!

Russia's possible regrouping to Libya could have far -reaching consequences for Moscow, Tripolis and beyond.

The future of Russia in Syria is on the brink! While analysts agree that the loss of Syria for Russia means little, one thing is clear: the Kremlin does not want to give up its strategic influence in the Mediterranean and in Africa. Russia has laboriously built this position in the past ten years.

an uncertain fate for the military bases

But with the takeover of power by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the future of these bases is uncertain. Russia has already deducted parts of its troops, which raises the question: What happens to Moscow to the Mediterranean and Africa?

The answer could be in Libya! Russia already has a presence there and is considered the only practical alternative if Moscow should withdraw its forces from Syria. But what would a sudden increase in Russian military for the already volatile Libya? And what effects would an increased Russian presence have so close to the NATO limit?

"Russia sees Africa as one of the main places in the competition of the great powers," explains Oleg Ignatov, a leading analyst of the International Crisis Group. Since 2017, the Kremlin has been pursuing the goal of expanding its presence in Africa through bases in Syria and Libya. The Africa Corps, formerly Wagner Group, secures the governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, who have broken off relationships with the west after recent states.

Libya in chaos

Libya itself is in a power struggle that could be confused by the grouping of Russian troops from Syria to North Africa. There has been hardly any stability since the 2011 revolution, and the country is managed by two governments, both of which are considered illegitimate. Khalifa Haftar, the self -proclaimed military commander, and the internationally recognized Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah are irreconcilable.

The last choice that was to take place in December 2021 failed at the last minute. But the UN has announced new negotiations to enable the first national election since the failed attempt in 2021. But analysts warn: A significant Russian military base in the east of Libya could give Haftar an oversized voice in these negotiations.

"If Russia shifts to the east, hats can do and leave what he wants," warns Tarek Megerisi from the European Council on Foreign Relations. That would make the negotiations of the UN a farce, since Haftar could dictate the conditions.

"more bullets", he concludes, and thus indicates the potential conflicts that could result from this shift in power.

The geopolitical maneuvers of Russia in Libya should not be underestimated. "It's not just about military bases. Russia creates pressure points on Europe's migration routes, energy supply and trade routes," explains Anas El Gomati from the Sadeq Institute in Tripolis. Libya could prove to be a perfect platform for hybrid warfare.

The western powers continue to try to rehabilitate stitching, although he could offer refuge a few hundred nautical miles from the NATO coast. "The NATO threat is not exaggerated. It is understood," says El Gomati.

The coming months could be decisive for how the geopolitical landscape in North Africa and beyond. Russia has a lot to lose - and win even more!