Russia is using Trump's 50 days as a license to launch an offensive in Ukraine

Russia is using Trump's 50 days as a license to launch an offensive in Ukraine

President Trump has effectively given Vladimir Putin an extraordinary green light: 50 days to complete his brutal summer offensive against Ukraine before facing any consequences.

Consequences of the extended deadline

Only if no agreement to end the war is reached by the end of this deadline, at the beginning of September, would the threatened ones 100 percent tariffs on Russian goods and secondary sanctions against Russian trading partners come into effect.

The perspective of Ukrainians and the Kremlin

For millions of sleep-deprived Ukrainians currently under sustained Russian attacks with deadly missiles and mass drones, that period could seem like an eternity. In Moscow, on the other hand, the officials are already breathing a sigh of relief. After all, things could be much worse for them.

Sanctions could go into effect immediately if President Trump wanted them, or they could be significantly higher - like the 500 percent tariffs proposed in a bipartisan bill in the U.S. Senate. Nevertheless, it is uncertain whether the threatened sanctions will actually change the Kremlin's course in Ukraine.

Russia's strategy and economy

Russia is already one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world, reeling from penalties stemming from allegations of vote-rigging in the US as well as other harmful activities from Crimea to Syria to Britain. The Kremlin has already established a complex system of sophisticated evasion strategies to keep its fragile economy afloat while refusing to change its behavior.

“Life has shown that no sanctions against Russia deliver results,” commented Anatoly Aksakov, a key Russian lawmaker, when asked about the latest sanctions expectations. “They lead Russia to confidently move forward, develop its economy and carry out structural transformations of its national economy,” he added.

Prospects for war in Ukraine

Kremlin insiders also suspect that the 50-day window before the new US sanctions even take effect provides enough time for military success in Ukraine - or, if that fails, for the notoriously volatile President Trump to change his mind about Russia again. “So much can change in 50 days, both on the battlefield and in the mood of the powerful in the US and NATO,” a prominent Russian senator, Konstantin Kosachev, said on social media.

“But our sentiment will not be affected,” he promised, underscoring how Russia sees itself as long-term thinking while Western governments, particularly the Trump administration, are seen as fickle.

US arms deliveries and political reactions

Despite all this, Russia is seriously concerned about the prospect of US weapons - even defensive Patriot missile defense systems - entering Ukraine again. Moscow sees the near-daily airstrikes on Kiev and other Ukrainian cities as an essential part of its current military strategy, alongside the ongoing offensive on the Ukrainian front.

The idea is that the Ukrainian will to continue fighting will be exhausted, the political will in Europe will weaken, and the country will eventually capitulate. But the agreement to supply additional American Patriot missile defense systems, which provide a protective cover against air attacks, makes this scenario less likely.

Frustrated Russian politicians are now speaking out, accusing President Trump of talking about peace while prolonging the war behind the scenes. “Ukraine, this man is deceiving you!” explained Leonid Kalashnikov, an outspoken Communist Party deputy. “He wants this war to continue, but not with his own hands,” Kalashnikov added.

Kremlin-controlled state media sharply criticized Washington's shift to supplying weapons to Ukraine, comparing Trump to his predecessor, who is widely hated in Russia. “Trump is now following in the footsteps of [former US President] Joseph Biden and promising arms to Ukraine to bring Moscow to the negotiating table,” said Olga Skabeyeva, a prominent pro-Kremlin anchor. "Biden has been doing this for the last three and a half years. But as we know, he hasn't been successful," she sneered.