Bashar al-Assad leaves Syria: Influence on Putin's strategy in Ukraine

Bashar al-Assad leaves Syria: Influence on Putin's strategy in Ukraine

The world now knows the colors of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad: the Russian tricolore. Assad's escape to Moscow, which took place after the rapid collapse of his regime, means much more than the loss of a regional state for the Kremlin. The fall of the House of Assad is a massive setback for President Vladimir Putin's ambitions to act as power brokers in the Middle East and raises new questions about the fragility of his own regime.

reactions in the opposition

Putin's opponents are already cheering. "Minus a dictator and ally of Putin," wrote the prominent Russian opposition activist Ilya Yashin on the platform X and posted a picture of a burning Assad banner. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba commented: "Putin let Assad down to extend his war in Ukraine. His resources are limited, and he is not as strong as he specifies."

historical parallels

For observers of the war of Russia against Ukraine, Assad's departure raises some remarkable historical parallels. Assad is part of the series of former Ukrainian counterparts that were forced to exile: Former Ukrainian President Viktor Janukovich fled to Russia in 2014 after there were weeks of street protests that culminated in a bloody suppression.

Today Syrian roam the abandoned Presidential Palace of Assad in Damascus, similar to Ukrainer once the site of Mezhyhirya, the lush property, which was once inhabited by Yanukovych. Mezhyhirya was redesigned as a museum of corruption. Yanukovich has not returned to Ukraine since his fall, although Russia has now checked more than 20 % of the Ukrainian territory after it carried out a full scale invasion of the country in 2022.

The difference to Zelensky

In contrast to Assad, whose troops apparently without resistance Damascus tasks, the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj held up, while Russian troops advanced on Kiev. (The Afghan President Aschraf Ghani, also supported by the USA, wavered and Afghanistan fell to Taliban in 2021.)

Assad's escape from Syria was more than a moment to celebrate a symbolic setback for Putin for the Ukrainians. The Syrian regime collapsed, while Selenskyj was in France to meet President Emmanuel Macron and the then President Donald Trump before the Cathedral of Notre-Dame was reopened, where the Ukrainian leader received applause.

The effects on war in Ukraine

Ukraine is preparing for the consequences of Trump's possible re -election, with concern that the upcoming administration could withdraw support for Kiev. But the collapse of Assad's regime could potentially weaken Putin's position in the negotiations to terminate the war in Ukraine, especially if Putin's aggressive threats of the past few weeks are perceived as hollow.

When the rebel fighters approached Damascus, Trump pointed out in a social media post on the limited options for action of the Kremlin: "Because of their entanglement in Ukraine, where they have lost over 600,000 soldiers, to be unable to stop these literal advance through Syria for years," he wrote.

a military defeat for Putin

The collapse of the Assad regime, however, represents a very real military loss for Putin. After the rebels advanced, videos appeared that show the fall of Assad in Tartus on the Syrian Mediterranean coast, where Moscow has had a naval base since the cold war. Russia also used its air base in Hmeimim, in the province of Latakia, as a turnstile for power demonstration in the Middle East.

When visiting Hmeimim in 2017, Putin promised that the two bases would "stay in operation in the long run" and warned that if "the terrorists" - that is, the opponents of Assads - will come up again, we will carry out unprecedented blows that have never seen them before. "

Putin's geopolitical changes

When Putin intervened almost a decade ago and sent his Air Force and Russian mercenaries to support Assad's weakened forces in cooperation with Iran, this escalation paid off: he won time for Assad, brought more of Syria's geography under control of the government and was an important player in regional and global politics.

After his isolation at the G20 summit 2014, after the annexation of the Crimea and the heating of the separatist movement in Donbas, Putin was the man with whom you wanted to talk. By relying on Assad, the Kremlin boss turned from an outsider to an hero in the geopolitical struggle.

Putin's uncertain future

Putin's support for Assad a decade ago now seems to be empty. But it could still be too early to write down Putin as a rival negotiating partner and potential opponents, despite the dismissal of his client. Tatiana Stanovaya, a precise observer Putin, suggested in a post on X that Assad's defeat could harden Putin's negotiating position in the Ukraine conflict.

"Putin could set up additional conditions and will notingly agree to negotiations. He will insist that it is now to the west and Ukraine to change her attitude," she said, pointing to Trump's views of Putin to end the war in Ukraine. "It should be noted that Assad's collapse also shakes Putin, which makes him less inclined to show flexibility towards Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has partially cost him Syria, which reinforces his unwillingness."

Putin has long seen himself in an enemy conflict with the West and faces an arrest warrant of the International Criminal Court because of alleged war crimes in Ukraine. The fall of Assad could continue to harden its position.