Putin in sight: expert estimates on future annexation plans

Putin in sight: expert estimates on future annexation plans

Narwa, Estland - Vladimir Putin is increasingly dissatisfied with the current situation in Ukraine. The Ukraine War, which has been going on for over three years, led to the annexation of the Oblaste Cherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Saporischschja. These actions were classified as contrary to international law worldwide. According to experts, further annexions of Putin cannot be ruled out in neighboring countries. According to David Grigorian, a senior fellow to Harvard’s Kennedy School, a scenario that is reminiscent of the Soviet Union also threatens as "USSR 2.0". He warns that Putin may initially target former Soviet partial republics before attacking NATO or EU countries.

The first possible goal called Grigorian is Belarus. There, dictator Alexander Lukaschenko works closely with Putin. An association between Belarus and Russia will be conceivable in the coming years. Grigorian Georgia and Azerbaijan, where he believes that Putin could use minorities for possible overturns, mentions another goal. According to him, the Central Asian countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have little chance of opposing the influence of the Kremlin.

NATO and growing risks

EU countries, especially the Baltic states, could also be threatened by Russia in the medium term. An assault on the Estonian city of Narwa could challenge NATO and lead to a serious crisis. Grigorian appeals to the West to continue to support Ukraine massively in order to counteract Moscow's expansion plans. He emphasizes the need to support Prewestish opposition movements and to tighten sanctions against Russia.

The Ukraine conflict has heavily burdened relationships between the EU and Russia. Until the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the EU tried a strategic partnership with Russia. However, the developments have resulted in a significant deterioration in relationships. The EU is invading Russia's march into Ukraine as attacks on the territorial integrity of the country as well as the fundamental values ​​of the EU, such as freedom and democracy. The strategic compass for security and defense of the EU, passed in March 2022, describes Russia as a long -term threat to European security and thus reacts to the aggressive measures of the Kremlin.

Putin's expansive strategy could not only destabilize the geopolitical situation in the region, but also have far -reaching consequences for Europe. The impending influence by pro -Russian governments in neighboring countries could lead to further conflicts. The international community is again challenged to prevent another meeting with the increasing territorial ambitions of Russia.