Economy in the upswing? Experts warn of fragile growth in Europe!

Economy in the upswing? Experts warn of fragile growth in Europe!

Current economic developments in Europe and especially in Germany are still extremely complicated and characterized by uncertainties. According to the latest analyzes of the banking association, which were presented in Vienna on Thursday, leading economists feel behavior optimistically with regard to the economic upswing, but without any significant momentum. Jörg Krämer, chief economist of Commerzbank AG, stated: "Europe left the recession area, in 2025 there is something lower and in 2026 a little more growth". For Germany, growth of only 0.0 percent for 2025 is predicted, while a lighter upward movement is expected to 1.5 percent for 2026.

The uncertainty in the economy is enormous, especially due to the political situation in the USA under the influence of Donald Trump. In response to the inconsistent economic situation, the economists took a critical look at the necessary reforms in Germany. Krämer emphasized that despite declarations of intent in relation to reducing bureaucracy and corporate taxes, progress is slow. According to Stefan Bruckbauer from Unicredit Bank Austria, there is also only low growth forecasts in Austria with 0.1 percent for 2025 and 1.3 percent for the following year.

business forecasts and trade situation

The situation is also reinforced by the falling shopping manager indices in industry that have fallen under the critical brand of 50 points across Europe, which signals a continuation of the decreasing industrial production. The GfK consumption climate has not improved significantly, while geopolitical risks and inflation-related price increases inhibit the willingness to invest. The political stage also remains uneasy, not only in Germany, where new elections are due for February 23, 2025, but also in the USA, where the presidential election campaign has already started and influenced the market developments.