US shares fall again, reality returns to Wall Street

US shares fall again, reality returns to Wall Street

The US exchange has according to its Reality caught up: Although President Donald Trump temporarily suspended most of his "mutual" tariffs, his other massive import taxes have already caused considerable damage, and the Economy will not easily recover from the consequences .

Current market movements

After the Dow Jones rose almost 3,000 points on Wednesday, he fell by more than 900 points or 2.25 %on Thursday morning. The S&P 500 fell by 2.6 % and the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.1 %. The S&P 500 experienced its best day since 2008, while Nasdaq recorded the second largest daily profit in its history on Wednesday.

reactions on customs breaks

retailers were thrilled that Trump temporarily suspended his so -called mutual tariffs, which are not really mutually mutually. These tariffs burdened numerous countries with high taxes of 11 % to 50 %.

The equity futures also reacted positively to the announcement of the European Union on Thursday, their replied to the USA To be temporarily suspended in the hope of a negotiated trade contract after Trump's change of course. Trump and Finance Minister Scott Bessent said that more than 70 countries are willing to negotiate trade agreements with the United States in order to be relieved of the tariffs, and the Trump administration would like to create time for these negotiations.

economic insights and forecasts

Despite Trump's change of course, the reality remains clear: economists agree that the economic damage is already caused, and many predict a US and global recession. The stock prices are still clearly below the values that prevailed before Trump's announcement of his "liberation day" tariffs, and the big losses on the stock market, existing tariffs and the high uncertainty about US trade policy are sufficient to burden the economy.

The universal 10%inch, which came into force on Saturday, remains, as well as the 25%tariffs on auto imports, steel and aluminum as well as 25%tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico. Trump has also announced that it has to introduce additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, wood, semiconductor and copper.

market analysis and influence

Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday after Trump's partial accommodation that the likelihood of recession in the United States was still a gambling. JPMorgan explained on Wednesday evening that you would not change your recession forecasts and still see a 60%probability for a US and global recession, even after Trump's "positive" decision to quarrel his "draconian" country-specific tariffs.

"My feeling is that the (US) economy will probably fall into a recession, given the level of the simultaneous shock that she absorbed," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist from the consulting company RSM, CNN . "All of this only shifts temporarily, which will probably be a number of punitive import taxes on US trade allies."

development of inflation and interest

New data from Thursday showed that inflation in the United States declined sharply in March. Although this is usually gratifying for investors, the attention of Wall Street focuses on tariffs and the perspectives of the economy in the future.

"The [Data from Thursday] concern March, which is in retrospect and does not tell the market much, about how the youngest tariffs, even if many have been paused, influence consumer prices," said Skyler Weinand, Chief Investment Officer at Regan Capital.

trade war with China

In the meantime, Trump does not go back from the wave with his worrying trade war against China - on the contrary, the situation intensifies. Trump increased his tariffs to Chinese imports to 125 %on Wednesday; On Thursday, the retaliation duties of China came into force from 84 % on US imports.

China explains that it is ready to negotiate with the United States, but a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasized again on Thursday that China would not give in if Trump continues to escalate the trade war.

"The door to conversations is open, but the dialogue must be conducted on the basis of mutuality and equality," said the spokesman. "We hope that the USA will be able to accommodate China and work on a solution to the differences through dialogue and consultation."

"If the USA choose a confrontation, China will react in the same way. Pressure, threats and blackmail are not the right ways to deal with China," added the spokesman.

market pressure and investor mood

Some billionaires who had pushed Trump to refrain from his strict tariffs were pleased that the president stepped on the brakes.

"There are better and worse ways to solve our problems with unsustainable debts and imbalances, and President Trump's decision to withdraw from a worse path and to negotiate how to deal with these imbalances is a much better way," said the billionaire and investor Ray Dalio in a post on X on Wednesday evening and added: "I hope so ... do. "

Signs of stress in the markets are visible beyond stocks. The bond market, which was sold alarming quickly-the return of the 10-year government bond rose over 4.5 % of less than 4 % at the beginning of the week-cooled down a bit on Thursday. The returns rise when bond prices fall.

The 10-year-old return remained over 4.3 %on Thursday morning. This is not a precise sign of trust.

"Bonds signal that the break is significant, but fundamentally not much has changed," said Ing analysts in a message to investors on Thursday. "The markets will not easily remember these episodes with far -reaching market fluctuations."

oil prices and currency market

The oil prices also remained under pressure. US oil fell again on Thursday to about $ 60 per barrel, near the level of April 2021. The prices had dramatically fallen below $ 57 per barrel on Wednesday before they recovered. Brent-Rohöl, the global benchmark, also fell by 3.3 % to about $ 63 per barrel.

The US dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar compared to six foreign currencies, fell by 1.2 % on Thursday morning and thus reached the lowest level since the beginning of October. The dollar generally weakened this year, which indicates the concerns of investors about the health and stability of the US economy.

global market development

Nevertheless, the global markets recovered significantly on Thursday. The National Nikkei 225 index in Japan closed over 9 % higher, while the Kospi index in South Korea increased by 6.6 %. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose by 2.1 %. The Taiex in Taiwan increased by 9.3 %. In Australia, the ASX closed 200 by 4.5 % higher.

The European stocks also rose strongly after the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, welcomed the fellow tariffs and welcomed Trump's decision to suspend his "mutual" tariffs.

"It is an important step to stabilize the global economy", she said on Thursday in of an explanation . "Clear, predictable conditions are crucial for trading and functioning of the supply chains."

The European Reference Index Stoxx 600 rose by 4.8 % on Thursday. The French CAC index increased by 5.2 % and the Dax in Germany also started by 5.2 %, while the FTSE 100 index in London rose.

Report by CNNS Nectar Gan and Christian Edwards.