Ukraine's ceasefire is supposed to force Putin to reveal war goals
Ukraine's ceasefire is supposed to force Putin to reveal war goals
kyiv, Ukraine - a proposal that the Kremlin can neither reject nor accept it could force it into an unpleasant situation and president Wladimir Putin 's reveal true interest in his brutal war.
Europe's diplomatic efforts
The leaders of Europe have recognized the challenge whether Peace talks over the Ukraine lead to a meaningful result To move Moscow to a violent withdrawal, exactly the moment it is apparently planning to escalate his attacks in the coming summer months.
preparations on the front line
This proposal only gives the largest army in Europe - Ukraine - only 30 hours to prepare their front troops for possibly a month tense peace. The hope is that afterwards there will be weeks of serious negotiations in which the country's borders are redefined.
The risks from the USA
In the end, Ukraine, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland faced a clear choice: the very public impatience of the Trump administration, both with Moscow and less justified with Kiev, the risk that the white house simply "continues". This could lead to the United States supported their support for Ukraine, which would be a potential catastrophe for European security.The diplomatic weight of the European leader
The enormous diplomatic efforts of President Emmanuel Macron, Prime Minister Keir Strander and the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj have brought the White House in a position in which it had to support a direct European initiative to check the output of the greatest war at the continent since the 1940s.
The challenge for the Kremlin
Europe forces Russia to accept a proposal that was originally made by the USA and Ukraine-a 30-day unconditional ceasefire that was offered after a bilateral meeting in Saudi Arabia almost two months ago. This also forces the White House to monitor the ceasefire and, if necessary, support "massive sanctions" if the initiative fails.
Moscow and its options
The previous answer of the Kremlin, "we have to talk about the nuances" is no longer sufficient. He has to agree to the proposal, contest it or ignore it. It is likely that, as in the past, he will construct a complicated answer. Russia could agree to the ceasefire, but then bring about an increase in violence that it can attribute to the Ukrainians.
difficult decisions for Ukraine
The next 30 days could bring considerable costs for Kyiv and Europe. Ukraine could lose ground while their troops react more sensitive to Russian attacks during the ceasefire. The White House could emerge from this process and once again believe that Selenskyj is the problem.
the need for clear answers
Ukraine and its European allies seek clarity as to whether Putin is interested in any kind of peace. The way there remains unclear and is full of potential pitfalls through Putin's manipulations.
The challenges for the leaders of Europe
At a meeting on Saturday in Kiev, the leaders of the five largest military in Europe seemed convinced that Putin does not want peace and will not seriously think about it for a month. These five leaders are faced with the difficult task of confirming this fact and convincing Trump that he has to take an even harder position towards Russia than his predecessor, Joe Biden.
The outlook on the coming weeks
The possible path that European leaders have in mind indicates a tightening of the war, with violating Putin a ceasefire, providing "massive sanctions" and Europe has to further expand its military support for Ukraine. They seem to believe that the Kremlin is not interested in one end of the war.
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