Ukraine loses the ground while Trump's team demands a ceasefire

Ukraine loses the ground while Trump's team demands a ceasefire

Less than a week before Donald Trump's return to the White House is the ukraine The Ukrainian troops are on several front sections against Russia In addition, there is a lack of experienced soldiers and there are doubts as to whether military aid will continue to exist to date.

The situation in eastern Ukraine

In Kiev, the government observes the signals from Moscow and Washington and reaffirms the desire for a "just peace" almost every day. Any thought to recapture the area occupied by Russia is an indefinite period.

Despite significant losses, the Russian troops in the Donetsk area still Incessive ahead, one of the four areas that Moscow illegally annexed and who wants to fill it completely. Your daily profits are measured in fields and streets while gradually approaching the region's industrial area.

lack of support and resources

according to the open sources analyzes Warmapper stretches the Russian crew to a little more than 18% of Ukraine - Including the Crimea as well as the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, which were conquered before 2022. In December, Russia took about 150 square miles (400 square kilometers).

The Ukrainian units are massively inferior in the east. A commander reported that small groups of Russian infantry at the same time carry out attacks from several directions, which makes it difficult for the Ukrainian armed forces to concentrate their fire.

"Although the balance of power in relation to tactical fire, drones and long -distance attacks does not move significantly in favor of one side, the manpower remains the decisive difference between Russia and Ukraine," says Mick Ryan, who writes the blog for Futura Doctrina.

Russian advance in the region

Russian units are now 5 kilometers from Pokrovsk and under control of Kurakhove and parts of Toretsk, as evidenced by geolocalized videos. The commander of a Ukrainian battalion near Pokrovsk reported increased shelling and attacks with lubricants by Russian armed forces.

The military spokesman Viktor Tregubov said on Ukrainian television that the fights for Kurakhove are going and the troops in the power plant, "that's why we cannot say that the Russian troops have completely taken the city. But of course most of the city is laid in Schutt and ash."

The perspectives of a negotiation

The Russian "battle of attraction" is unchanged. "The enemy is inevitably worn out before the Russian steam roller stops," said the analysts Keith D. Dickson and Yurij Holowinsky.

The goal of Kiev is to defend what it still holds. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in a -the Ukraine Defense Contact Group-in Germany in the last Week that the priorities of Ukraine will be the stabilization of the front line and the strengthening of defense skills this year.

"The reason is simple. Moscow is not ready for any compromises. It plays on victory, not on a draw," says Arkady Moshes in 19fortyfive .

"Success can be achieved either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table, but they have to be undisputed. In Putin's point of view, Ukraine has to be defeated, and the West has to publicly recognize the defeat of Ukraine - and its own -" adds Moshes.

Potential peace talks

Trump's Ukraine-sent, the former US general Keith Kellogg, said last week that he hoped to find a solid and sustainable solution for the conflict within 100 days. Trump himself had said in the election campaign that he would end the fights within 24 hours of his inauguration, but when asked how quickly he could end the conflict, he replied: "I hope for six months. No, I think I hope much earlier than in six months."

How the unchanged goals of the Kremlin are compatible with the plans of the upcoming Trump administration remains unclear.

Ryan, the blogger of Futura Doctrina, believes that Putin will probably make sure that the 100-day goal fails. He has no mandatory reason to sit down at the negotiating table, since he believes that he has the initiative in this war. "

The Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj gave little signs of the parameters that would be acceptable for Ukraine. He said on Friday: "We will undoubtedly be determined and achieve a permanent peace for our people and our country."

His priority is to carry the concerns of Ukraine directly to Trump. A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, Horhii Tykhyi, said on the same day that Ukraine was prepared for talks at a "highest level". "Our attitude is clear: everyone in Ukraine wants to end the war on conditions that are fair for Ukraine."

long -term security for Ukraine

In the center of each agreement for Kiev, short -term guarantees are that a ceasefire can be monitored, as well as long -term collateral for Ukraine, which Putin should prevent it from using a ceasefire to reorganize themselves and resume hostility.

"This must include a significant investment in air forces, ballistic rocket defense and a fully equipped, NATO standard-like difficult division," say Dickson and Holowinsky. At the same time, they add: "Selenskyj must take a strategic long -term look and understand that the lost territories actually represent a gangrene limb that has to be separated to save the healthy body."

At least Moscow will demand that the Ukraine give up the conquered areas and give up its urge to join NATO, which Trump sees as a provocation against Russia.

but the Kremlin is expected to ask much more.

kiev is "expected to accept comprehensive restrictions on the size of its armed forces and the type of weapon systems that it may have. These suggestions are not a recipe for a sustainable solution," says Serhii Kuzan from Atlantic Council .

Moscow has shown no signs to give up its maximum demands for the entire territory of all four regions that it supposedly annexed. "That would mean the transfer of large amounts of vacant Ukrainian territory, including the city of Saporischschja with a population of around 750,000 people," says Kuzan.

At the moment both the White House and many commentators see no interest on both sides to start discussions. "There are currently no expectations that one of the two sides is willing to conduct negotiations," said the spokesman for the United States Security Council, John Kirby, in the last few days.

While both the Kremlin and Trump have signaled willingness for a summit, premature attempts to promote negotiations on the Ukraine conflict could backfire, according to the Russian commentator Giorgy Bovt.

"If the meeting takes place prematurely, while the conditions for peace are not yet available, this will bring more damage than benefits.