Does NATO survive without the USA? The answer could surprise

Does NATO survive without the USA? The answer could surprise

Seoul, South Korea - the European security architecture faces a challenging reality. The role of the United States as a backbone of NATO, which has guaranteed the continent security for almost 80 years, is no longer a matter of course. President Donald Trump's public aversion to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, his willingness to cooperate with Russia's Vladimir Putin, and his latest statements about the defense of NATO allies, have forced European managers to think about the unimaginable: Is the US support in times of the greatest war in Europe since the 1940s Years still reliable?

NATO without the USA: a new perspective

Analysts agree that NATO is not powerless even without the USA. With over a million soldiers and the latest weapon technology from the 31 other Member States of the Allianz, Europe could defend itself if necessary. The most important contributors to NATO's military budget are the USA and Germany with almost 16 %each, followed by Great Britain with 11 %and France with 10 %. It would therefore not be impossible to compensate for the losses in Washington's contribution if the European countries join together and buy the correct equipment.

EU strategies for military strengthening

Ben Schreer, the European Executive Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), found that Europe could possibly build a serious conventional and nuclear deterrent against Russia if it decides to mobilize the necessary resources. "Europe alone has the capacity it needs to defend itself, it is only a question of willpower," said Schreer in a zoom conference.

However, the question remains whether Europe is willing to assume this responsibility. In more than 75 years of transatlantic solidarity, the United States was always the putty that alliance held together. During the Cold War, US troops held the role of a deterrent factor against Soviet ambitions on the continent. The NATO operations in the Balkans in the 1990s were also supported by US troops and air force.

analyzes to the fragmented NATO

The latest tensions, especially Trump's escalation with Zelensky and the end of the US aid to Kiev, have led to a deeper crack in the transatlantic alliance, which is not considered repaired by analysts. John Lough, a former NATO official, noticed that the United States increasingly regarded Europe as competitors instead of as allies. "As soon as you lose part of the engagement, you effectively lose everything," emphasizes Lough.

Some analysts are convinced that a NATO without the United States is not necessarily bad. "As soon as US allies are convinced that they can no longer rely on the American defense skills, they will be forced to expand their own capacities," wrote Moritz Graefrath, an academic employee at the Global Research Institute of William & Mary University.

Europe's military strength

With regard to military capacities, Europe could become a serious power if it is formed. Turkey has the greatest military presence in NATO after the United States with over 355,000 active soldiers. France, Germany, Poland, Italy and other European countries also have significant armed forces that could work together in an emergency

In addition, many NATO countries have modern weapons that are far superior to Russia. Great Britain has two modern aircraft carriers, while Russia only has an outdated carrier. France and the United Kingdom also have Nuclear forces.

A look into the future

Some hope that the discussion about a US deduction from NATO is only a tactic of Trump to encourage allies to invest more in their own defense. This situation is reminiscent of previous challenges when the USA under Trump also took a reserved attitude in other conflicts. If the situation in Europe is similar, NATO could continue to exist, even if threats overhand through a retreat.

whether and how the military landscape will develop in Europe remains to be seen. However, it is clear that European cooperation is urgently needed to ensure security on the continent.