Election marathon in Hamburg: Who wins the fight for voters?

Election marathon in Hamburg: Who wins the fight for voters?

In the upcoming elections in Hamburg, the parties face a special challenge: the close clocking of the elections to the Bundestag on February 23 and the citizens on March 2 could have a particular influence on alternating voters. Political advisor Bendix Hügelmann recommends that the parties clearly differentiate their messages in order to effectively address citizens. He analyzes that federal political issues could also have an impact on the choice of citizens, especially due to overlaps in the campaign messages.

The likelihood that citizens differentiate between federal and state policy issues is in the room. Hügelmann points out that the order of the elections could influence the interpretation of the results. The situation could lead to political mobilization and eligibility. However, he expects a slight increase in the turnout in Hamburg. "Parties with a positive national trend could benefit from a participation effect," explains Hügelmann.

Current survey values ​​and digital strategies

In the 2020 citizens' election, the SPD received 39.2%, the Greens 24.2%, the CDU 11.2%, the left 9.1%, the AfD 5.3%and the FDP failed at the five percent hurdle. Current surveys project the SPD at 32%, followed by the Greens with 20%and the CDU with 17%. The AfD is currently seen at 10%, the left at 7% and the FDP and BSW at 4%.

Particular attention is paid to the digital election campaigns. Hügelmann emphasizes the importance of platforms such as Tiktok, where the AfD has more followers than other parties in Hamburg. Nevertheless, many parties have so far been neglected by many parties, although 23 million Germans use the platform. Cansu Özdemir (Left Party), Jimmy Blum (FDP), Sarina Badafras (SPD) and Emilia Fester (Greens) are under the few politicians who actively use TikTok. However, Hügelmann warns that many parties have difficulty implementing contemporary social media communication, since this requires a certain lead time.

The role of social media could turn out to be crucial during the election season. Social media such as Tikok, Instagram and Facebook have shown that they often spread radical views to generate likes and shares, especially the AfD and its youth organization young alternative activate these platforms strongly. However, experts consider it unlikely that social media decisively influence the Bundestag election. Judith Möller, professor of empirical communication research, emphasizes that the election decision depends on many factors, not only on social media.

Andreas Jungherr, professor of politics and digital transformation, indicates that short-term social media campaigns are not decisive and that information is cumulative. Nevertheless, it is clear that social media distort the perception of reality by disproportionately addressing dissatisfaction and problems. Jungherr describes social media as a "stress test for democracy", which increases the visibility of problems. The experts advise established parties to use social media more active in order to support pluralistic democracy, and not to spread every dubious post in the classic media, as this can even strengthen false information.

-transmitted by West-Ost-Medien