Election marathon in Hamburg: Who will win the battle for voters?

Election marathon in Hamburg: Who will win the battle for voters?

In the upcoming elections in Hamburg, the parties face a particular challenge: the tight timing of the elections for the Bundestag on February 23rd and for the citizenship on March 2nd could particularly influence swing voters. Political consultant Bendix Hügelmann recommends that parties clearly differentiate their messages in order to effectively address citizens. He analyzes that federal political issues could also have an impact on the general election, particularly due to overlaps in campaign messages.

The likelihood that citizens will differentiate between federal and state political issues is uncertain. Hügelmann points out that the order of elections could influence the interpretation of the results. The situation could lead to both political mobilization and electoral fatigue. However, he expects a slight increase in voter turnout in Hamburg. “Parties with a positive federal trend could benefit from a pull-in effect,” explains Hügelmann.

Current survey results and digital strategies

In the 2020 general election, the SPD received 39.2%, the Greens 24.2%, the CDU 11.2%, the Left 9.1%, the AfD 5.3% and the FDP failed to pass the five percent hurdle. Current polls project the SPD at 32%, followed by the Greens at 20% and the CDU at 17%. The AfD is currently seen at 10%, the Left at 7% and the FDP and BSW at 4% each.

Particular attention is paid to digital election campaigns. Hügelmann emphasizes the importance of platforms like TikTok, where the AfD has more followers than other parties in Hamburg. Nevertheless, TikTok has so far been neglected by many parties, even though 23 million Germans use the platform. Cansu Özdemir (Left Party), Jimmy Blum (FDP), Sarina Badafras (SPD) and Emilia Fester (Greens) are among the few politicians who actively use TikTok. However, Hügelmann warns that many parties have difficulty implementing modern social media communication because it requires a certain lead time.

The role of social media could prove crucial during election season. Social media such as TikTok, Instagram and Facebook have shown that they often spread radical views in order to generate likes and shares; the AfD and its youth organization Junge Alternative in particular strongly activate these platforms. However, experts believe it is unlikely that social media will have a decisive influence on the federal election. Judith Möller, professor of empirical communication research, emphasizes that the voting decision depends on many factors, not just social media.

Andreas Jungherr, Professor of Politics and Digital Transformation, points out that short-term social media campaigns are not decisive and that information has a cumulative effect. Nevertheless, it is clear that social media distorts the perception of reality by disproportionately focusing on dissatisfaction and problems. Jungherr describes social media as a “stress test for democracy” that increases the visibility of problems. The experts advise established parties to use social media more actively to support pluralist democracy and not to spread every dubious post in traditional media, as this can actually increase misinformation.

– Submitted by West-East media