The Russia-Ukraine peace process runs according to Moscow's plan: slow
The Russia-Ukraine peace process runs according to Moscow's plan: slow
In the current situation, it is obvious that the plan of the Kremlin will win space, while the White House does little to counteract this. The decision by Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj, Minister of Defense Rustam Umerow to meet a meeting with a low -level Russian delegation in Istanbul was a difficult choice that was made out of necessity. The main focus is on one person: US President Donald Trump.
the need for peace
kyjiw must prove that it is ready to take every possible step to promote peace. Otherwise there is a risk that Trump, surrounded by Pro-Kremlin's voices, loses interest in the negotiations or limits support for Ukraine. But ultimately the peace process runs exactly according to the wishes of Russia - slowly and with the Kremlin as the main actor.
reactions and emotions
According to statements from France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland, which, together with Ukraine, demanded a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, were visible from Putin and Trump, according to France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland. The main knowledge is that the Kremlin is not afraid of further sanctions and cannot be deterred by the pressure from Europe or Trump. Putin's rejection of this initiative is a calculated risk that seems to be paid out.Putin's strategy
Putin sees the potential domestic pitfalls of a photo appointment with the US President and his Ukrainian adversary as much more serious than the possible damage that Trump's anger could cause. Trump's reaction - who notes that "nothing will happen" until he and Putin meet - lets all expectations of diplomacy suffocate in the bud until the two presidents meet personally.
the possibility of a bilateral meeting
It is not excluded that a bilateral meeting between Trump and Putin could soon take place. The talks in Istanbul on Friday could also have a lead summit at the weekend. But Putin seems to be able to advance the peace process without hurrying. His troops are increasingly gathering on the front in the east, which indicates larger strategic goals in Russia.
Putin's rejection and the risks
Putin's decision to reject Trump's offers reveals two key aspects of his thinking. He was ready to accept the other "massive sanctions" that France threatened to reject the ceasefire. He probably also correctly assessed that Trump's anger would be limited. The Kremlin boss was ready to provide speculation about the occupation of the Russian delegation in Istanbul for three days to make the world available to the world.
Selenskyjs challenging location
Selenskyj is now facing an unpleasant moment when he has to take part in the conversations if they gain intensity unexpectedly, but without appearing like a waiting person. A planned summit in Albania is waiting for him on Friday, but then he urgently has to return to the front.
The future of negotiations
It gradually becomes clear that Trump could continue to shy away from tightening the sanctions and consequences for Russia that indicated Europe and the White House. The limited and "technical" composition of the Russian team in Istanbul will offer Trump enough reason to maintain hope for progress and to delay further measures against Moscow. The conversations will probably be stalled, while the Kremlin presents a number of maximum demands and Ukraine is angry with an armistice that continues to reject Russia.
The will of the Kremlin
Despite the participation of high-ranking Trump representatives on Friday, there will probably only be minimal progress and the talks will concentrate on further negotiations. That is exactly the plan of the Kremlin.
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