China's greatest fear of Trump's approach to Russia

China's greatest fear of Trump's approach to Russia

The efforts of US President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine seem to run out, to make important concessions to Russia . This could leave Kiev and his European supporters Sidelined, while they are the prospect of a Peace contract, which is closed over her head.

global effects of Trump's policy change

This idea was in accordance with Chinas To present the global south that is willing to convey in the lengthy conflict-even if NATO accuses him of delivering the Russian defense industry Dual-Feuer. China defends his "normal trade".

The uncertainty of Beijings

Now Beijing is neither as an ally of Russia in the negotiations nor as a voice of global importance - so far it is left out in the sudden developments that observers see surprisingly for Chinese officials. These now have to strive to find an advantage.

high missions for XI Jinping

The missions are high for XI, which has been a personal bond for his "old friend" Putin and carefully cultivated his country's relationships with Russia. He sees his northern neighbor as a decisive partner in a larger power struggle with the West.

The Chinese guide took a calculated risk three years ago when Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border. His decision not to judge this invasion and act as Putin's lifeline - buy Russian oil and supply Moscow with important goods - Beijing cost the trust of Europe and mobilized American allies in Asia to work closer together with NATO.

China's answer to the US Russia Talks

In the past few days, Chinese officials have expressed their approval of the "agreement" between the USA and Russia about the beginning of peace talks. "China supports all efforts that promote peaceful conversations," said the highest diplomat Wang Yi at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council.

But comments from US officials from the past few days could have made Beijing aware of the possible underlying US goals while working with Russia. The top US diplomat Marco Rubio mentioned the possibility of a future "geopolitical and economic cooperation" between Washington and Moscow as one of four central topics discussed in Riyadh.

The skepticism in Beijing

observers are skeptical that Washington could smash the Russia-China relationship, in view of its deep orientation against the order led by the USA and Moscow-based economic dependency on Beijing.

But all concerns that in China about the possibility that Trump - a guide who repeatedly announced his admiration for both Putin and XI - could loosen their connection, may be reinforced by the echo of past no confidence between the neighbors. Bitter territorial disputes along their long common border escalated in conflicts between the Soviet Russia and the Young People's Republic of China in 1969 and were only largely settled in the 1990s.

a place at the table?

But others argue that Beijing may have more confidence in his relationships with Moscow. "The relationships between China and Russia are in their own league, they are based on strong institutional connections that have developed over decades," says Yu Bin, a Senior Fellow in the Russian Studies Center of the East China Normal University in Shanghai.

yu referred to the efforts of both countries to advance multilateralism and to strengthen their own international organizations such as Brics and the Shanghai cooperation organization, as well as the need to maintain the stability of their limits. "I don't think one of the two sides gives up just because Trump has been in office for four years," he remarked.

Rather, China is worried "that as soon as Russia and the United States enclose their differences and achieve a certain level of peace in Ukraine, the Trump administration could turn back to China," said Yu.

US defense Minister Pete Hegseth indicated last week when he Colleagues made it clear that the United States cannot primarily concentrate on security on its continent while priority on "have to put a deterrent of a war with China"

China's promising diplomacy

If Trump had not been able to hire Putin directly, Beijing might have tried to solve some friction with the USA by working with Washington to bring the Russian guide to the negotiating table - but now remains unclear whether China will play a role in future peace negotiations for Ukraine.

In the meantime, Chinese officials have used a flood of diplomacy in the past few days to regain lost love for Europe-in public explanations they called for “all relevant parties and interest groups involved in the Ukraine crisis”, “to be included in the peace talks”, which indicates a place at the table.

At the same time, they try to emphasize their willingness while indicated that Trump's apparent turn to Putin proves that Beijings was correct from the start. In the meantime, Ukraine has expressed the view that it could try to win China as its own ally.

The Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj, who has been target = "_ blank" since the beginning of the war received little attention from Beijing after a meeting between a high-ranking Chinese diplomats Wang and Ukrainian in Germany. "It is important for us to get China on board to put pressure on Putin to end the war. I think we'll see China's first time," said Selenskyj at a press conference on Tuesday. "This is mainly due to the fact that all processes are now accelerating."

As far as the composition is concerned at the negotiating table, the Ukrainian leader added that it should be countries "who are willing to take responsibility for ensuring security, help help, stop Putin and invest in the restoration of Ukraine".