Russian flights from Syria to Libyan base are climbing - new hub planned

Russian flights from Syria to Libyan base are climbing - new hub planned

In the weeks after the fall of Bashar al-Assad as a Syrian guide, Russia started several flights to an air base in the Libyan desert. The goal of Moscow seems to be an alternative intermediate landing for its growing military engagement in Africa and at the same time to preserve its military presence in the Mediterranean. For almost a decade, the Hmeimim air base and the naval base Tartus on the Syrian coast served both for almost a decade. Now the conflict-plagued North Africa-Land Libya is the focus of the Russian efforts to project in the Mediterranean.

Russian military flights to Libya

Flight tracking data analyzed by CNN show that more than one flight a day has been carried out by Moscow's huge Antonow An-124 Transport aircraft as well as Ilyushin IL-76 machines-from Hmeimim to Al-Khadim, a base near Bengasi in the eastern Libya. At the beginning of this month, American and western officials said that Russia Military equipment and troops from Syria. Advanced Russian air defense systems may have belonged to the transferred equipment. CNN realized that shortly before the start of the Russian flights, pictures of these systems were taken before the removal from Syria.

consolidation of military presence in Africa

Jalel Harchaoui, an associated employee of the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) based in London, said CNN that in the past few weeks there had been an "undeniable increase" of Russian planes that land from Syria, Russia and Belarus in Libya. The Hmeimim location was the central hub for Russian mercenary operations in Africa, which initially took place in the Central African Republic and later in countries such as Sudan, Libya, Mali and Burkina Faso.

By strengthening his presence in Libya, Moscow could preserve enough capacities to pursue its more extensive ambitions further south in Africa and to absorb the costs associated with Assad's fall. Geolocalized videos show that at least one of the aircraft, which has recently arrived in Al-Khadim, continued to flew to Bamako in Mali, where Russia recently replaced long-term French influence. According to analysts of the American Enterprise Institute, the Russian flights to Bamako about Libya demonstrate that Russia has already seen Libya as an alternative to its Syrian bases.

NATO observes the developments

This development is concerned about concern in the NATO capitals. The Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto told the Italian daily La Repubblica that "Russian ships and submarines are always concerned in the Mediterranean, and even more if they are not 1,000 kilometers away, but only a stone's throw away." A week ago, the Italian army, General Luciano Portolano, visited Tripoli, where Habters rule rivals supported by the United Nations. According to a high-ranking NATO official, the 32-member defense alliance monitors the activities in both Tobruk and Benghazi in Libya.

hat and his position

The Russian influence in Libya may continue to deepen, especially if the Russian navy consider a port under Laim's control as an alternative to its facility in Tartus in Syria. Haftar is a moody and aging guide in a chronically split and unstable country. However, analysts warn that there are no legal agreements such as with Syria and that Habttar could show the Russians at any time, which could lead to an insecure future relationship. Libya is an inadequate replacement for Syria in many ways, since transport aircraft can only achieve Russia if you can fly over Turkey, which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan provides a valuable negotiating position.

Syria's new government and its ambivalence

It is unclear whether the new leadership is determined to end the Russian military presence in Hmeimim and Tartus. The interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa explained in a Interview Russia "leaves the country in a way that does not fit the relationships with Syria." In view of the uncertain future development of Syria, Moscow will endeavor to secure itself in a region of growing strategic importance.

Even if the new rulers allow Russia to keep the air and naval bases in Hmeimim and Tartus, it will have to reduce its troop strength and logistics, such as ammunition stores, since they are no longer necessary to support Assad. According to Harchaoui, the formerly enjoyed security and logistical lightness that Russia had under Assad will never return. President Vladimir Putin mockingly dismissed Assad's fall, but the loss was a real setback for Putin's ambitions in Africa. The African governments that have previously turned Moscow are likely to think about the reliability of Russia, which will restrict its ability to make new agreements for the Africa troops.

Nevertheless, Russia is not completely beaten by Assad's case. Harchaoui notes that the “logistical network” was not completely destroyed or decimated considerably, but has only become deteriorated and has become more expensive.