Asteroid 2024 YR4: Are we threatened with a dangerous flyby in 2032?

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Are we threatened with a dangerous flyby in 2032?

A recently discovered asteroid called “2024 YR4” will come dangerously close to Earth in the next few years. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), there is a 1.2 percent chance that the asteroid will collide with our planet in 2032. This impact probability is one of the highest ever documented for an asteroid of significant size, reports Die Welt. The asteroid was discovered on December 27, 2024 with the ATLAS telescope in Chile and is currently moving in a long orbit that will make it disappear from the field of view of telescopes until April 2025.

ESA describes this flyby as a “historic moment”. On December 22, 2032, “2024 YR4” will pass close to Earth, with the probability of it passing safely being almost 99 percent. If an impact does occur, the asteroid could leave a crater up to two kilometers in diameter, while some pieces of material may enter the Earth's atmosphere but burn up there, as the Kleine Zeitung reports. The asteroid is currently estimated to be around 40 to 100 meters in size and is currently around 27 million kilometers from Earth.

Observations and challenges

To obtain more precise data on the size and composition of “2024 YR4,” the James Webb Space Telescope will be aimed at this asteroid in March. However, ESA's head of asteroid defense, Richard Moissl, emphasizes that this asteroid is not a "planet killer" and therefore there is no cause for alarm. For now, ESA continues to monitor the asteroid to take appropriate action in the event of an increased risk. If the probability of an impact is over one percent, the International Asteroid Warning Network becomes active and collects data. It remains to be seen whether “2024 YR4” will disappear from telescope view in April and exactly when it will be observed again, as new data could potentially reduce the risk of an impact.

Predictions about the asteroid's exact path are still up for debate, while astronomers are doing everything they can to conduct determined observations to protect humanity from potential dangers posed by asteroids. There have been serious impacts in the past, but the vast majority of asteroids currently pose no immediate risk to us.

ESA's involvement in asteroid observation documents the need to be constantly vigilant in order to minimize the risk of asteroidal threats and, if necessary, to be able to consider evasive maneuvers worldwide should the situation change accordingly.