World economy in the stress test: interest increases and weak growth forecasts!

World economy in the stress test: interest increases and weak growth forecasts!

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivers alarming forecasts for the global economy. In the coming years, interest rates could increase and the effects of inflationary developments in various regions could be obvious. So reports vienna.at that inflation is moving closer to the goals of the US Federal Reserve and the labor market is stable. But the question remains: what will bring the new US trade policy? This uncertainty mainly affects countries that are strongly integrated into the global supply chains and could lead to another headwind for the global economy With regard to the growth forecasts of the IMF, a real GDP growth of 3.1 % is expected for 2024, which is a slight improvement in comparison to previous estimates. Nevertheless, the situation remains tense, especially in Europe, where lean growth of only 0.9 % is forecast. According to infographics.io , the European area is significantly burdened by declining consumer mood and excessive energy prices. The IMF also commented that most states have to reduce their budget expenses and introduce reforms according to the high expenditure during corona pandemic to secure sustainable growth.

global risks and challenges

The uncertainties are huge: a potential increase in raw material prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could drive inflation up further. In addition, China's economy is under pressure thanks to a troubled real estate market, which could also have an impact on international trade. If the conditions improve faster than expected and go back inflation, this could in turn benefit the global economy. A strong focus is now on how politics will develop under the new US government, especially in terms of tariffs and trade, which is directly related to the global growth forecasts.