US attack on Iran could have chaotic consequences in the Middle East

US attack on Iran could have chaotic consequences in the Middle East

The United States seem to move closer to the Fordow fuel facility lies.

US President Trump is considering military actions

In the middle of the Israeli attacks on Iran and its nuclear program, Israeli managers are waiting for whether US President Donald Trump will support them in their project. According to two civil servants familiar with ongoing discussions, Trump is increasingly interested in using US military units to combat Iranian nuclear systems and seems to be more off the idea of ​​a diplomatic solution.

"I could do it, I couldn't do it. Nobody knows what I will do. I can tell you that Iran has big problems and wants to negotiate. I said why you didn't negotiate with me before all this death and destruction," Trump explained to the reporters in the White House on Wednesday.

consequences of an attack on Iran

Experts warn that a US attack on Iran could lead to an even more difficult conflict than the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan-a lengthy response that could take advantage of the entire presidency in Trump and would cost significant losses in American life and resources to in favor of Israel.

"Every attack in the USA would lead to a large-scale attack by the Iranians to US bases in the region and trigger a total war between the USA and Iran," said Trita Parsi, deputy president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, Dc.

"Iran is a very large country, which means that there are a variety of goals that the United States would have to hit in order to reduce Iran's ability to retaliate," added Parsi. This happens at a time when there is not much support for a war with Iran in Trump's own camp.

The risk of escalation

A attack by the United States on Iran could open the "pandora fractures" and "most likely take advantage of the rest of President Trump's term of office," said Ellie Geranmayh, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, compared to Cnn.

"As soon as you open these pandoral fr beization, we don't know where things will lead," said Geranmayh. "Trump has gone back with Iran for the threshold of the threshold for war, and he has the ability to do this again."

Iran's reaction and military strategy

The Islamic Republic sees the USA Complices in the Israeli attacks on Iran because the Israelis attack American weapons; Some Iranian officials said that Tehran is already on a "comprehensive, long-term war ". On Wednesday, the top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Iran would not give in to "unconditional surrender!" One day after Trump in a social media contribution! " called.

"The Americans should know that the Iranian nation is not willing to give up and will inevitably lead to military interventions from their side to irreparable damage," said Khamenei in a nationwide address.

The nuclear question remains

In a contribution to X that was directed to Trump, the former Iranian chief negotiator Hossein Mousavian, who now lives in New Jersey, asked the president of being a "president of peace". He warned that an attack on Fordow would be fruitless - since Iran probably shifted some of the progressive centrifuges to other locations - and would probably make Iran strive for a nuclear bomb.

"With a wrong decision, you could not only be responsible for Iran's decision to build a nuclear bomb, but also lead the United States into a war, the consequences of which would be far more harmful to the American people than the US attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq," wrote Mousavian.

experts point out that even if Iran's nuclear program is destroyed, it would only be a matter of time for the country to be able to build a bomb if the government wishes. "The Iranians have the knowledge and capacities to rebuild everything," said Parsi. "Everything that would cause an attack would be a delay while Iran's motivation to build a nuclear weapon is significantly increased."

sustainability of the conflicts and risks

It remains unclear whether a US attack can successfully destroy the complex built into the interior of the earth near the Holy City of Qom. The main halls of Fordow are estimated to be 80 to 90 meters underground - safe in front of all air bombs that Israel has. Yechiel Head, Israel's ambassador in the United States, said that only the US air weapon has the weapon that the facility could destroy. However, analysts warn that there is no guarantee that even the "bunker crackers" bomb in the USA-the GBU-57/B, known as a massive order of the Penetrator-would be able to do so.

The persistent Israeli bombing of Iran and its nuclear systems have aroused regional concerns about possible radioactive contamination that could go beyond the borders of Iran, a nuclear system should be hit. Iran has only a nuclear power plant that is located in the southeastern town of Buschehr - and Israel has not yet targeted it. Experts emphasize that an attack on Fordow does not cause the same risk as an attack on a nuclear reactor.