Netanyahu: Israel could trigger regime changes in Iran, how likely?
Netanyahu: Israel could trigger regime changes in Iran, how likely?
Since his targeted attacks on Iran began on Friday, the calls have become louder after a change of regime in Iran-from Falken in the US Congress to Israeli officials to some Iranian activists abroad. Many argue that the Islamic Republic is significantly weakened and the time has now come to take advantage of the unrest in the country and public dissatisfaction in order to plunge the prevailing clerical establishment under the leadership of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
netanyahu comments on possible consequences
The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday in an Interview with Fox News that Israel's operation could "certainly" lead to a change of regime because the government in Iran was "very weak". He claimed "80 % of people would drive away this theological gang of criminals".
Netanyahu added: "They shoot women because their hair is uncovered. They shoot students. They simply go away the brave and gifted people, the Iranian people, simply to breathe.
direct impact on public opinion in Iran
Freedom of expression is severely restricted in Iran, and as a result of the attacks of Israel, there was no noteworthy public views to fall the regime. However, experts agree that Netanyahu may misjudge the public mood in Iran - the attacks could prove to be counterproductive.
The attacks of Israel are expected to judge the public anger against Israel, while people in Iran do their inner problems as long as they are looking for protection, according to the experts.
trust in an uprising is low
"Iranian activists who have fought for freedom and justice all their lives know that their value has little to do with people like Netanyahu," said Arash Azizi, an Iran expert from New York and author of the book "What Iranian Want", to CNN. You realize that Netanyahus right government "does not match your values at all."
In recent years, Iran has experienced nationwide protests against the regime, in particular in 2022 and 2023, which was triggered by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, which was arrested by the Iranian moral police for alleged violation of the regulations. Many activists have been detained since then, and the authorities have tried to repress further protests repressive, which led to fear and an increase in law enforcement and executions. Dissatisfaction is widespread.
desire for political change remains unheard of
But experts and Iranians who are currently living under Israeli shelling report that most Iranians Netanyahu or his government do not perceive as a solution to their inner problems.
A local Iranian journalist said that despite the view of some, the conflict could be an opportunity for a change of regime, they want to shape their future. Others are of the opinion that the Israeli attacks do not form the basis for political change and that such a change should be caused by democratic procedures.
The realities in times of war
Another journalist who wanted to remain anonymous said that the perception in the country was that the regime was not weak and that people would not protest while their cities are bombed.
"The people in Iran fought against the Islamic Republic for years, strive for democracy and freedom," said the journalist from Tehran. "But I believe that those who live in fear and explosions in fear and try to protect their children and relatives do not have the psychological or practical capacity of 'going on the street'. The streets that are constantly attacked are now empty than ever."
dangers of an uprising under war conditions
"In addition, from the public's point of view, the Islamic Republic has not yet reached the point at which it collapses through protests. Every action against the regime in war times leads to brutal repression," said the journalist and added: "Now the regime has a free hand to defamate everyone as an Israeli spy."
Others believe that in times of national crises, people tend to tend to unity, no matter how dissatisfied they are. In their view, foreign intervention is a red cloth.
The voice of civil society in Iran
Narges Mohammadi, one of the best -known human rights activists Iran and award winner of the Nobel Prize for Peace 2023, who has been in prison in Tehran for years because of politically motivated allegations, posted no to the war! "
Together with other Iranian activists, including the Nobel Prize winner Shirin Ebadi and filmmakers Jafar Panahi and Mohammad Rasoulof, all of whom were pursued by the regime because of their political activity, they published a joint opinion article in the French newspaper Le Monde on Monday - at the same time they asked for uranium enrichment and that Regime resigns.
persistent tensions and possible effects on the region
In recent years,Israel has reinforced his relationships with Reza Pahlavi, the son of the overthrown Iranian monarch. Pahlavi expressed support for the actions of Israel and received praise from some in the Iranian diaspora and accusations of the betrayal of others.
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that "the residents of Tehrans will pay the award", and later made it clear that Israel did not intend to damage civilians. Nevertheless, it is found that Israelis is not even trying to take care of the security of the Iranian civilian population, said Azi.
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian asked for unity in a statement published by state media. "People in Iran have to stand together and fight strongly against aggression that is directed against us," said Pezeshkian and defended Iran's law on a peaceful nuclear program.
The future remains uncertain
Israel has eliminated some of the highest military military in Iran, including leading members of the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). Even if there is a change of management, this could not correspond to the expectations of Netanyahus, according to experts. "A change of regime is possible, but not in the form that Netanyahu has in mind," said Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor -in -chief of the news portal Amwaj.
Netanyahus call to a change of regime through violence has also alerted other countries in the region. In an interview with the magazine Le Grand Continent based in Paris, Anwar warned Gargash, the diplomatic consultant of the President of the United Arab Emirates, "if a country feels attacked, nationalism tends to strengthen."
Iraner who spoke to CNN does not see Israel's actions as helpful for their country. "Netanyahu attacked us, and now he expects to overthrow Khamenei while we stand for bread and fuel in snakes and fight for our survival? Khamenei with Israeli rockets?" said an Iranian journalist.
"Of course we are happy to see the leaders of this regime - whose hands are stained with the blood of our children.