Israel's attack on Iran breaks 40 years of taboo - Tehran before decisions

Israel's attack on Iran breaks 40 years of taboo - Tehran before decisions

The Iranian government has tried to trivialize the effects of the Israeli attacks on its territory this weekend. She indicated that a "way out" had been found to avoid another conflict. Nevertheless, the attack sets a precedent that the Islamic Republic has tried to avoid since it was founded 40 years ago.

Avoiding direct confrontations

For decades, the parties to the conflict have avoided direct confrontations by on a Shadow war concentrated. Israel carried out secret operations in which decisive Iranian figures were murdered, and carried out cyber attacks on essential facilities, while Iran his Arabic proxy-milizen activated to attack the Jewish state.

a turning point in the shadow war

The attack on Saturday marked the first time that Israel had admitted to Iran, which opened the shadow war openly and some in Iran questioned the country's deterrent capacity. After the Iranian attack on Israel, which was considered a retaliation for an alleged Israeli attack on a diplomatic building in Damascus, Israel reacted only a few days later with counterattacks, which were not publicly recognized.

open confession and internal debates

This time it was different. Israel openly explained that it " Precise attacks " Military goals in Iran. "Israel now has greater freedom in air operations in Iran," said military spokesman Daniel Hagari and praised the success of the attack.

After the attack, the Iranian state media published pictures that showed the usual life in the cities. Despite the attack, schools continue to do their lessons and the streets of Tehran were very busy. Hardliners in the media mocked the attacks while social media laughed at the limited nature of the Israeli reaction.

a mixed reaction of Khamenei

In his first comments after the attack, Iran's top guide Ayatollah Ali Khamenei chose a mixed reaction and emphasized that the attacks " should neither be exaggerated nor desolate . " However, the initial wave of trivialization finally gave way to an internal debate whether Iran should react with a tough answer to prevent Israeli attacks from being considered normalized.

The consequences for the Iranian security architecture

"There is a feeling that if you do not react, the idea of ​​normalizing is that Israel can strike in Tehran without an answer," said Trita Parsi, Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC. The attacks that were a reaction to Iranian assault on Israel were not aimed at nuclear or oil systems, but on strategic systems in Iran, which are of great importance

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran's defense systems and its ability to export rockets had taken considerable damage. The Iranian military stated that some military locations had suffered “minor damage”, but which were quickly remedied.

internal debates about deterrence

Experts, on the other hand, find that the damage was far more devastating than Tehran would like to admit. Nicole Grajewski, a researcher in the Nuclear Policy Program of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that Iran's air defense systems and important radars, which are decisive for the identification, were presumably destroyed in the first wave of attack.

Tehran has built regional proxies, which served as a safety net and the first line of defense against Israel. These militias, which are stationed at the borders to Israel, are supposed to stop Israel from attacking Iran directly. The idea was that if Israel attacks Iran, Tehran would react to Israel with his militias.

the nuclear option and the geopolitical implications

Since the Trump administration has given up the nuclear agreement with Tehran in 2018, the Islamic Republic has gradually increased the enrichment of uranium, which is a decisive part of an atomic bomb if it is cleaned to a high level. The Iranian authorities have repeatedly stated that they Use potential as a means of pressure in the negotiations with the West.

"The nuclear option is now" much more public "and has" normalized "in the conversations, but Israel was able to do it in the past, Nuclear program to disturb , and could possibly do this again, ”says Grajewski. Parsi points out that even if Israel attacks Iran's nuclear institutions, Tehran will endeavor to build an atomic bomb.