Iran responds to Trump's attacks: assets and global trade affected

Iran responds to Trump's attacks: assets and global trade affected

The decision of US President Donald Trump to attack the nuclear systems of Iran.

Iran's reaction options to the US attacks

In a speech in Istanbul, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi explained on Sunday that his country had "a variety of options" to react to the US attacks.

Iran could attack US military locations in the region or even close an important waterway for global shipping traffic. However, all of these options have significant risks for the Islamic Republic, Israel and the United States.

military reactions of Iran

Direct US engagement in conflict could cause Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) to activate their remaining deputies in Iraq, Yemen and Syria, which have already started attacks on American interests in the region.

While Hesbollah, Iran's strongest ally in the region, was significantly weakened by Israeli attacks, the US Army maintains a total of 19 permanent military, according to the Council on Foreign Relationships. According to estimates, around 40,000 US soldiers were stationed in the Middle East by June 13th.

a possible oil shock

Iran also has the power to influence the entire commercial shipping traffic in the Golf, in particular by closing the Hormuz street, a decisive oil delivery route. So far there have been no significant disorders of the global oil flow. However, should Iran try to block Hormuz's street, the global oil market could face an existential crisis.

About 20 million barrels oil pass this waterway every day, which connects the Persian Gulf with the open ocean. An influential advisor to the Iranian head has already mentioned that rocket attacks and the closure of the Hormuz street are considered.

nuclear ambitions of Iran

Some experts suspect that Iran could quickly develop an atomic bomb due to the current situation, even if the current regime collapses and new leaders come to power. "Trump has just guaranteed that Iran will become a nuclear weapon state in the next 5 to 10 years," said Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute in Washington, Dc.

Experts have indicated that Iran could possibly also escape from the nuclear weapons blocking contract (NPT), which contradicted his obligation not to develop any nuclear weapons.

Iran's strategies against Israel

Iran's first reaction to the US attack on his nuclear locations was a counter-strike against Israel, not against US bases. Iranian rockets met buildings in Tel Aviv, which led to numerous injuries. In view of the possibility that it is unable to maintain a comprehensive conflict with the United States, Iran could try to maintain the status quo by only fighting against Israel.

asymmetrical measures and cyber attacks

military analysts have expressed that Iran could possibly use “asymmetrical” solutions such as terrorism or cyber attacks to react to the US attacks. "The IRGC will try to find out what options it still has," said an expert. "I suspect that you will consider all asymmetrical possibilities you have."

negotiations and diplomacy

Iran refused to step back to the negotiating table as long as the Israeli attacks last. Araghchi explained that it is unclear how much room for diplomacy after the US military strokes on Iranian nuclear facilities. "We have to react due to our legitimate right to self -defense," he added.

It is assumed that the situation could end the talks between the USA and Iran for the time being, since Israel has achieved effectiveness and control over diplomacy between the two nations.

The developments in this critical situation are still being observed closely, while the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is changing.