A number could determine the result of the Iran Israel conflict
A number could determine the result of the Iran Israel conflict
The result of the decisive conflict between Iran and Israel could depend on a simple number Appreciation is. According to Israeli military data and expert analyzes, Iran has around 700 of his (Mrbm) fired on Israel. This is estimated to leave between 300 to 1,300 rockets in his arsenal.
Israel's military strategy and the effects on Iran's Arsenal
This remaining arsenal is affected by the violent air raid of Israel in the past five days. The IDF (Israeli defense forces) reports that it has targeted at least a third of the starting systems for the MRBMS, which could possibly further restrict Iran's ability to retaliate.
The pressure on Iran and negotiation options
The reduction of his arsenal could increase the desire of Iran to find a negotiating channel from the conflict and at the same time increase the intensity of the Israeli offensive in the coming days, according to analysts. While the Israeli air power is largely undisputed, Iran's nightly attacks seem to have decreased in Israeli cities recently.
estimates on Iran's rocket arsenal
There are only a few reliable estimates for Iran's Arsenal. General Kenneth McKenzie, commander of US Centcom, stated in 2023 that Iran had more than 3,000 rockets of different ranges. Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, estimated that 1,000 to 2,000 of these rockets are probably mediocre and that can reach 1,400 kilometers between Iran and Israel. He described the estimates as "at best a rough calculation on the back of an envelope".
Current developments and damage to Iran's military infrastructure
According to the IDF, Iran used 120 MRBMS in his attack on Israel on April 13, another 200 on October 1 and a total of 380 in the past five days. This would reduce the known overall heir irreparably around 700 rockets. Whether this Tehran falls into an existential crisis regarding its rocket discharge system depends on the size of the original arsenal and the damage that Israel has caused to Iran's military infrastructure since it attacked goals nationwide on Friday.
consequences of the Israeli air strikes
Ben Taleblu suspected that Iran may still survive with 1,300 mrbms. Other estimates are more pessimistic. Dr. Eyal Pinko, a retired officer of the Israeli Marinen's lecture service and now Senior Research Fellow at Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, said: "Taking into account that they have fired around 400 to 500 rockets in the past four days and has destroyed a part of the arsenal, I believe that they have now have 800 to 700 rockets."
Iran's ability to generate rocket
Some insights into the damage that Iran's air defense and rocket production suffered from Israeli attacks on October 26 show significant losses. Admiral Tony Radakin, the British head of the Defense Committee, said in a speech in December that 100 Israeli planes were able to fire a comparable number of rockets from a great distance and "have almost the entire air defense system Iran.
The future of Iran's rocket technology
Lately Israel has the threat, which is reinforced by Irans Raketentechnology . Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday, while Israel started his air campaign that Iran had accelerated his production of ballistic rockets to 300 a month, which could lead to an existing 20,000 rockets in six years. However, he did not provide evidence of this claim.
outlook on the military situation
Pinko found that the attacks of 2024 destroyed the "main facilities for the production of ballistic rocket engines" in Iran, which leads to considerable restrictions in the country's supply chain. Nevertheless, he points out that possible support from China could boost production again in the coming months.
"Iran does not want his arsenal to sink to MRBMs under four -digit numbers," said Ben Taleblu. "Quantity has its own quality for the Islamic Republic," he added, noting that Iran is "excellent in coping with the crisis, but actually a bad conventional warrior. Spending these ballistic rockets during a war, instead of in a crisis, brings it exactly to these quill."
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