Trump's big business with Zelensky weakened by doubts about Ukraina's resources
Trump's big business with Zelensky weakened by doubts about Ukraina's resources
The claim of President Donald Trump that the potential "trillion dollar business", which he could complete with the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj, is easy for the US href = "https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/26/europe/ukraineus-mineral-deal-deal-explained-intl-latam/index.html"> Rare earth , contradicts the widespread assessments of current and former US official. These state that there is little actual evidence of large occurrences of rare earths and other minerals in Ukraine and that what is available is difficult to open up in the eastern parts of the country, if not impossible.
Trump's claims and reality
"We will dig, ditch, dig," Trump said to reporters on the eve of Selenskyj's visit. "The American taxpayers are now effectively compensated for the money and hundreds of billions of dollars that have flowed into the support of Ukraine."
political importance of the agreement
The agreement expected on Friday in the White House could be seen as a coup for the battered Selenskyj, which offers Trump a deal at a time when the US support wins. "It is an important political project that connects the two countries," said a high-ranking US official. "The agreement goes beyond the underground and is politically important for the Ukrainians at this point."
Missing evidence and unclear resources
Current and former US officials as well as analysts and experts emphasize that there is no clear picture of the resources that can be opened up in Ukraine. It seems Reviews to give, and what is known is based on decades, Soviet mapping.
raw materials and their availability
Although Trump emphasizes the importance of less frequent earth and American needs, the US Geological Survey says that the Ukraine via no proven reserves on rare earths or processing plants. However, Ukraine has great occurrence of other minerals such as graphite, lithium and titanium that the United States regard as critical minerals, but these are insignificant compared to other countries.
risks and challenges in mineral extraction
"If we look at globally, it's not much," said Jack Conny, a senior analyst at Energy Innovation. "In general, it is not to say that these resources do not exist, but we know very little about what it has to offer." The idea originally came from Selenskyj and won when he visited the United States last September and presented his "victory plan". This plan, according to both Trump and Biden administration, included access to some of the natural resources of Ukraine in exchange for continues to be offered.
criticism and skepticism
"It was simply not perceived as realistic," said a former high-ranking official of the bid administration. "That was the part [of the victory plan] about which we least discussed." Another former civil servant added: "I am not aware that a single US company was pressing to enter the mining shop in Ukraine." For the bidue administration, Selenskyj's offer seemed to be clearly directed to Trump, since Ukraine regarded it as transactionally and hesitated to maintain the same high level of US support for the country's war effort.
from theory to practice
A person known with the ongoing talks within the Trump administration about the deal and the war in Ukraine agreed that there are no current surveys on the rare earths of Ukraine that the US government was able to confirm independently. A US official who is familiar with secret intelligence reviews on this topic added that the consensus in the government consists in the fact that the value of the rare earths and other minerals of Ukraine does not come to the extremely high estimates of different Trump officials.
between hope and reality
Trump initially called for a share of $ 500 billion in the rare earths and other minerals in Ukraine, which Selenskyj quickly rejected. On Tuesday, Trump said that the agreed business of Ukraine would bring in "$ 350 billion and a lot of equipment, military equipment and the right to fight". Cards of the estimated mineral occurrence - which are widely considered outdated - show them across the entire country, including areas that are far from the front line. However, experts point out that occurrence are not always profitable and that the greatest potential in controversial, unstable and Russia -occupied areas is further east.
difficulties in mineral extraction
Based on what we know, most of the occurrences seem to be in areas controlled by Russia, "said a second former high-ranking official of the bid administration, who is familiar with the evaluations. Others are in the country, which is littered with mines and non -exploded ammunitions. The promotion, processing and refining of minerals, especially the rarer species, can be extremely expensive and take a lot of time. "This business has many complications that make it extremely difficult for the United States to achieve the advantages that are shown," said the former official.uncertain future
On Thursday, Trump admitted uncertainty which resources could actually be available to exploit it. "You never know when it comes to that. Maybe things are not there, how you think they're there," said Trump. "But we will spend a lot of time there. It will be great for Ukraine. It is like a huge project for economic development. So it will be good for both countries." According to a draft of the agreement viewed by the CNN, it is not once to refer to Trump's claims that Washington could regain the value of the aids that bid administration has sent to Ukraine. Instead, the establishment of a "reconstruction investment fund" is required, which is managed together by both countries and is to be used to rebuild the cities and the country's infrastructure.
geopolitical implications and security guarantees
While the Trump administration continues to endeavor to end the war, Selenskyj's government in the Trump administration aggressive security guarantees from Washington has asked for a future Russian invasion. Trump has resisted and explained that he will not send US troops to Ukraine as peace troops and that Ukraine should not be a member of NATO. Two positions that critics described as premature concessions to Russia. Instead, Trump's civil servants argue that a mineral business would offer the type of security guarantees that Ukraine is looking for because the United States would have an interest in protecting its projects and income. "Of course, the United States would protect our assets in which we are invested," said National Security Advisor Mike Waltz in an interview with Fox News on Monday. "That could mean trillions, not only for the Ukrainian people, but also for us and for the stability of the region. And this economic investment is one of the best security guarantees that Ukraine can hope for."
open questions and negotiations
The agreement viewed by CNN about the natural resources does not specify the scope, the locations and the types of materials that are expected to be developed. It leaves many details for a future agreement on a jointly managed fund. It defines natural resources as mineral deposits, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas and other degradable materials as well as the associated infrastructure. Although the economy of Russia weakens dramatically, observers believe that she still has the mass and manpower to continue fighting against Ukraine that has lost millions of its citizens and whose army is faced with considerable lack of personnel. "In his view, what can Selenskyj offer the USA or the West?" Asked the second high-ranking official of the bid administration. "You really assessed that this would be something that could arouse the Trump team's interest." A former officer said: "There is nothing wrong when the USA ends a deal. I just don't think that there is so much."
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