Trump promises great deal with Zelensky despite doubts about Ukraine's resources

Trump promises great deal with Zelensky despite doubts about Ukraine's resources

The claim of President Donald Trump that the potential "TrilliARDE dollar business", which he could complete with Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj, simple access to a treasure trove of Rare earth , contradicts the assessments of numerous present and former US civil servants. These say that there is hardly any evidence of large occurrences of rare earths and other mineral resources in Ukraine and that many of the existing occurrences are difficult to impossible, especially in the eastern parts of the country affected by the war.

The pressure on Selenskyj and the meaning of the deal

"We will dig, ditch, ditch," Trump explained journalists on the eve of Selenskyj's visit. "The American taxpayers are now effectively compensated for the hundreds of billions of dollars that have flowed into the support of Ukraine."

The agreement to be signed in the White House on Friday could be seen as a success for the battered Selenskyj, which offers Trump a business that can highlight it in a time when the US support reduces.

No clear assessments of the resources

Current and previous US officials and analysts have emphasized that no clear overview exists about which resources in Ukraine can actually be used. It seems To give reviews and what is known is based on decades -old cards from the Soviet period.

While Trump has focused on rare earth and American needs, the US Geological Survey explains that the Ukraine via no proven reserves less frequently or processing systems.

occurrence of other minerals and challenges

Ukraine has great occurrence of other minerals such as graphite, lithium and titanium, which are viewed by the USA as critical minerals, but these are modest compared to other countries.

"If we look at it globally, it's not much," said Jack Conny, a senior analyst at Energy Innovation. "In general, this does not mean that these resources do not exist, but we know very little about what is available."

The idea for the agreement originally comes from Selenskyj and picked up speed when he visited the USA last September and presented his “Victorium Plan”. According to Trump and Biden Administration officials, the plan to grant the USA access to part of the natural wealth of Ukraine, in exchange for continues to support.

"It was simply not considered realistic," said a former high-ranking official of the bid administration. "We spoke about this part of the victory plan the least."

uncertainty about the existing resources

A consultant that is familiar with the ongoing talks in the Trump team agreed: there are no current surveys on the rare earths in Ukraine, which the US government was able to confirm independently. A US official who deals with secret intelligence evaluations added that the consensus opinion in the government was that the value of Ukrainas of rare earth and other minerals does not meet the excessive estimates of various Trump officials.

originally required Trump a share of $ 500 billion in the rare earths and other minerals in Ukraine, which Selenskyj quickly rejected. On Tuesday, Trump said that the agreed deal of Ukraine "would offer $ 350 billion and lots of equipment, military equipment and the right to fight.

political and economic complexity of resource use

maps of the estimated mineral occurrence - widely considered outdated - show that they are distributed across the country, with some of the front line sector. However, experts warn that occurrence are not always worth being opened up, with the greatest potential further east in unstable, controversial and Russian -occupied areas.

The extraction, processing and refinement of minerals, especially less often earth, can be extremely expensive and time -consuming.

"This business has many complications that will make it extremely difficult that the United States can draw the advantages that have been shown," remarked the former official.

future prospects and security for Ukraine

On Thursday, Trump admitted that there is uncertainty about the available resources.

"You never know what comes out. You dig and maybe things are not where you think they are," said Trump. "But we will spend a lot of time there. It will be great for Ukraine. It is like a huge project for economic development. That will be good for both countries."

According to a draft of the agreement that is available, Trump’s claim that Washington could recover the value of the help sent by the bid administration.

Instead, it provides for the foundation of a "reconstruction investment fund", which is managed together by both countries to rebuild the country's cities and infrastructures.

conclusion and final considerations

While the Trump administration continues to be in charge of the term of war, Selenskyj's government has vehemently demanded security guarantees to prevent future Russian invasion. Trump refused to send US troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers and argues that Ukraine should not become a NATO member-positions that critics see as premature concessions to Russia. Instead, Trump's civil servants argued that a mineral agreement would offer the type of security guarantees that Ukraine is looking for because the USA would have a self -interest to protect its projects and income.

"Of course the US would protect our investments," said national security advisor Mike Waltz in an interview with Fox News on Monday. "This could mean trillions, not only for the Ukrainian people, but also for us and the stability of the region. And this economic investment is one of the best security guarantees that Ukraine could hope for."

The agreement visible by CNN about the natural resources does not specify the scope, the location and the type of materials that are expected to be exploited. Many details have to be negotiated in a future agreement via a jointly used fund.