Trump's reduction in Ukraine aid endangers civilians from Russian rockets
Trump's reduction in Ukraine aid endangers civilians from Russian rockets
Ukraine has only one way to protect themselves against the most powerful ballistic rockets in Russia: the patriot defense systems produced in the USA. Since the a lack of ammunition.
The consequences of the military aid break
Kiev and his allies are under pressure to develop a plan after the US President Donald Trump suspended military aid for Ukraine on Monday, after a heated meeting in the Oval Office with the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr selenskyj last week.
This step could have devastating consequences for Ukraine. Much of the military device that the Ukrainians use on the front can be obtained somewhere else or produced domestically, or there are alternatives. However, there are serious concerns whether the allies of Ukraine are able to replace what the United States has provided.
The crucial role of the Patriot systems
The biggest problem for Ukraine is, however, the potential loss of the US Patriot Air defense systems that are currently irreplaceable. Ukrainian soldiers reported CNN that their greatest concern is not the effects of the cuts on the front, but the missing patriot missiles that protect their families and relatives in the Ukrainian cities.
"The USA hold the license for the patriot rockets and the production of rockets itself, which makes it very challenging for several European countries," explained Kateryna Stepanenko, deputy head of the Russia team at the Institute for the Study of War, an American conflict observation institute.
Russian attacks intensify
Russia regularly fired waves of ballistic and marching aircraft to Ukraine and attacked cities, energy infrastructure and civilian goals weekly. Last summer it started a marching missile to meet a children's hospital in Kiev.
Ballistic rockets follow a curved trajectory that leads them out of the earth's atmosphere before diving and meeting their destination. They fly at extremely high speeds, which makes their intercept very difficult. March aircraft, on the other hand, are unmanned vehicles that are driven by jet engines, similar to an airplane, and from ground, air or sea. Due to their smaller size and the low altitude, they are difficult to recognize.
The intensifying location of Ukraine
At the same time, Moscow increased its supplies at a pace with which Ukraine cannot keep up. Russia produces more ammunition and also procures armor from allies such as Iran and North Korea. It is unclear how many rockets the Ukraine has in their stocks and whether further deliveries are already on the way from the USA.
A Ukrainian official said CNN on Tuesday that the stocks of patriot rockets in Kiev could be used up within a few weeks. Soldiers on the front also emphasized that the Patriots are a decisive equipment that Ukraine cannot afford to lose.
costs and challenges of air defense
Although the Patriots have been in use for almost 40 years, they are considered one of the best air defense systems. You can intercept the marching aircraft, hyper-shaped rockets, short-distance ballet and aircraft. Their effectiveness makes them an important goal for Moscow, which has attacked the systems several times.
In the past,Selenskyj had stated that Ukraine would need about 25 patriot systems to effectively defend their airspace. At the moment she has about half a dozen, with precise figures and locations being confidential information.
Alternative solutions and future perspectives
Ukrainian officials reported that the country had received three systems from the USA, one from Germany, one of the Netherlands and one of Romania. As is well known, more than a dozen of other countries have patriot batteries, including Greece, Saudi Arabia, Poland and South Korea, have been reluctant to hand over them to Ukraine due to the threats they are exposed.
Analysts emphasize that the Ukrainian armed forces were able to use the Patriots extremely effectively and even shoot off rockets that Moscow described as impossible to catch, such as the Kinzhal ballistics. However, this happens at enormous costs. With an estimated $ 1.1 billion per system, the Patriots are the most expensive equipment that was delivered to the allies to Ukraine.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies reported that each rocket for the Patriot system costs around $ 4 million-a remarkably high price. There are some alternative systems, such as Nasams and Iris-T, which have proven to be effective against marching missiles and drones. However, these cannot keep up with the Patriots in terms of protection against advanced hypersal and ballistic rockets.
Missing solutions and the urgency of the support
A potential replacement for the Patriots could be the samp/t air defense system made by Eurosam, a European manufacturer. However, so that the samp/t systems were as effective as the Patriots, Ukraine would need much more of it, and there are currently considerable delivery problems with the samp/t. The solving of these delivery problems will be crucial if Europe is received and the Ukraine is supposed to help.
Although the Patriots are the most important system that Ukraine will take care of at short notice, the sheer size and variety of support, which came from the USA, mean that other problems should soon arise. The United States had provided artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, hookwits and rocket defense systems such as Himars and ATACMS.
"The Patriots are the main topic, but there are also the so-called 'invisible deliveries'," said Mark Gelsotti, a leading Russia analyst, to CNN. "If you think of the M1 Abrams tanks and the Bradley armored fighters that were very useful on the front, even if something relatively insignificant breaks and these things need a lot of maintenance, they have to be pulled out of the line if the Ukrainians have no more stocks or spare parts."
According to the Kiel Institute, which monitors the help of Ukraine, the military deliveries that come from Europe are comparable to those from the USA. Selenskyj has explained that domestic production covers around 30% of Ukraine's needs.
The reporting was supported by CNNS Svitlana Vlasova, Victoria Butenko, Nick Paton Walsh and Lauren Kent.