Trump has 90 days for 150 trade deals - markets skeptical

Trump has 90 days for 150 trade deals - markets skeptical

President Donald Trump and his advisors have explained that War : to frighten the world with astronomically high tariffs so that countries move to the negotiating table, and - with the exception of China - to move away from the most draconic trade barriers, while America negotiates new trade agreements worldwide.

Trumps 90-day customs lores

The 90-day break from Trumps "reciprocal", the actually never reciprok , only gives his administration three months to enormously complex trade agreements with dozens of countries to be concluded that are supposedly willing to negotiate.

market developments and stock exchange fluctuations

The financial markets don't believe that. Shares swan down , while the volatility has risen. Other markets, including oil, bonds and the dollar, also send a clear message of deep skepticism that Trump can do this.

After a further abrupt decline on Thursday, the equity futures showed themselves stable and recorded moderate profits. The Dow Futures rose by 115 points on Friday, which corresponds to an increase of 0.2%. The S&P 500 futures increased by 0.3% and the Nasdaq futures were 0.4% higher. However, stock market investors act on the brink, and every announcement of the Trump administration with regard to tariffs has the potential to raise or crash shares. For example, the stocks crashed on Thursday after the Trump administration had specified the calculations that were used for massive customs of 145 % in China. The market had believed that the customs were 125 %. The Dow fell strongly, at one point by more than 2,000 points.

anomalies in the bond market

the Beaous market is strangely . As a rule, you would expect the bond prices to increase in times of unrest. Historically, US state bonds are the safest of all forms of investment, supported by the unreserved trust of the US government. But the bonds do not rise - they fall.

This is mainly due to the fact that investors have lost confidence in US trade policy and fear that America could be worse than the countries that targets Trump's customs policy. How Jpmorgan-CEO Jamie Dimon in his Formulated the shareholders First “policy the relationship with its most important partners and the special status of the country in the world.

price development at the oil market

The oil market acts as if we would control into a recession. The prices have dropped in the past few weeks because investors fear that Trump's trade policy could affect the demand for travel, shipping and transport - all areas that need fuel. The price of US oil fell to around $ 60 per barrel, close to a four-year low. Brent, the global reference price, levels off around $ 63 per barrel, also the lowest since April 2021.

oil prices have proven to be an important recession indicator in recent years. After an increase to over $ 100 per barrel, when the great recession started in 2008, they fell drastically. At the beginning of the pandemic, oil prices even went negatively when an oversupply became so pressing that retailers paid for it to get rid of the unwanted amounts of oil.

currency development and the dollar crisis

On Friday, the dollar fell to its lowest stand in three years. That is the opposite of what you would expect if tariffs are imposed. Usually tariffs would increase the value of a local currency because they encourage the residents to buy locals instead of foreign options. However, currency dealers sold the dollar because they believe that America bears the main burden of Trump's consequences of trade war and will ultimately be weaker than before the customs increases.

The dollar reached the lowest level compared to the euro since 2022, and the dollar index - which measures the dollar compared to a selection of currencies - fell by 1.1 % after a decrease of 2 % on Thursday. These are massive movements in foreign exchange trading.

trade agreements and economic consequences

Despite the enormous doubts of the financial markets, the ability of the Trump administration to use the opportunity created to conclude bilateral trade agreements with all 150 countries worldwide remains optimistic. Treasurer Scott Bessent said this week that more than 70 countries had asked for a meeting with US representatives to achieve an agreement that they freed from Trump's draconian tariffs. Although the government has given only a few details about which countries they are negotiating, it was said that it would initially prefer allies such as South Korea and Japan.

But trade agreements are extremely complex agreements that are usually negotiated for years, not for months. Even if Trump acts with all of these countries in a short time, be it through complete agreements or through declarations of intent, China, the largest exporter in the world, The elefant in the room . The US tariffs in China are now at least 145 %, and China has on Friday with its own 125%tariffs reacts . This will cause considerable damage to the two largest economies in the world, and both sides have declared that they are not ready to give in.

China has repeatedly explained that it is open to negotiations, but wants to lead it in a respectful way. According to a source of the conversations, China America's warnings ignored not to increase the tariffs.

In the meantime, economists have not reacted to Trump's sudden change of mood. Although negotiated trade agreements would undoubtedly be good news for the economy, the majority of the damage is already caused, Wall Street economists argue. And the draconian 10 % universal tariffs remain, as well as the 25 % tariffs on cars and certain products from Mexico and Canada as well as the 25 % tariffs on steel and aluminum.

That is why JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs appreciate the probability that the United States and the global economy will get into a recession this year than more or less high.

The information in this report was contributed by Kyle Atwood by CNN.