Trump's promised wars escalate - why does that happen?

Trump's promised wars escalate - why does that happen?

Brett McGurk is a global political analyst at CNN and served under President George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden in high -ranking security positions.

As a candidate, Donald Trump promised to end the Ukraine war in office on his first day and also to solve the Gaza conflict quickly. But more than six months after taking office, peace and stability seem further than ever.

Current situation in Gaza

In Gaza, the conversations about an armistice and an exchange of hostages that seemed promising a few weeks ago failed. The humanitarian situation is catastrophal .

Ukraine: persistent conflicts

In the Ukraine, repeated diplomatic attempts from Russia with its largest Air strikes answered. What happened? And what can be done now?

historical context of the conflicts

The end of a war is one of the most difficult diplomatic tasks. Donald Trump is not the first president to learn this lesson on the hard tour.

Dwight D. Eisenhower promised to end the Korean war quickly in 1952, and Richard Nixon wanted to “honor” the Vietnam War in 1968. Barack Obama also joined by promising to end the war in Iraq, but reality was often far from the election promises.

Trumps promise in the context of war and peace

Trump promised a “secret plan” for the quick defeat of ISIS in 2016, but in his first term he remained loyal to the plan he had inherited from Obama. After the recent elections, I helped secure the agreement on an armistice in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages from Trump's inauguration.

challenges of diplomacy

In negotiations, it is crucial to understand the "zone of possible agreement" (zopa). There is no such zone in Gaza because Hamas wants to keep power in Gaza, while Israel strives for the opposite. These fundamental differences make an agreement almost impossible.

The situation in Gaza: No space for compromises

Hamas rejects any transfer of security responsibility and Israel wants to ensure that the group is no longer in power at the end of the conflict. The USA and many other states support this objective. In view of these incompatible positions, a negotiation for the recurs of hostage liberation and temporary ceasefire was initiated. Unfortunately, the situation is escalated when Hamas did not meet the conditions.

Ukraine: contradictions and difficulties

Likewise, there is hardly any zopa in Ukraine. Russia's goal is to subdue the entire Ukraine, which is vehemently rejected by the Ukrainian side. The United States has therefore provided military help, while Trump moved into contradicting positions during his tenure.

six months of stagnation

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza remains catastrophic. While the bid administration was able to achieve an armistice through careful negotiations, Trump was able to abolish large parts of humanitarian aid with his politics. The pressure on Israel and Hamas to achieve compromises is essential.

restart for the coming months

In order to achieve better results in the next six months, the White House must implement the recently adapted strategy. For Gaza, this means primarily treating the humanitarian crisis and constantly maintaining the pressure on the parties involved.

The United States should not give up to have the talks about an armistice, because without it there is no serious hopes of freeing the hostages or ending the war soon.

With regard to Ukraine, the path is clearer: the new politics must be implemented consistently to strengthen Ukrainian defense ability and the possibility of a future diplomatic solution.