Conservatives triumph in Portugal - chaos and uncertainty threaten!

Conservatives triumph in Portugal - chaos and uncertainty threaten!

Portugal - On May 18, 2025, the conservative alliance Aliança Democrática (AD) won the early parliamentary election in Portugal under the Prime Minister Luís Montenegro. According to a survey by the state TV broadcaster RTP, the AD received between 29 and 34 percent of the vote, while the ruling Socialist Party (PS) won around eight percentage points less. This election follows a number of political turbulence that was triggered by Montenegro by losing a vote of no confidence in March

The turnout was in almost two thirds of the population entitled to vote and thus exceeded the figures of the previous elections in 2019 and 2022. With around 29.5 percent, the conservative electoral alliance ad, which came up with the strongest force, while the PS only came to around 28.7 percent and thus became the second strongest. Montenegro celebrated his victory, but the absolute majority of 116 parliamentary seats remained unmatched, which made it difficult to form a stable government.

political fragmentation and challenges

The right -wing populist party Chega could have reached second place behind AD according to the first projections, with मतदान of 20 to 24 percent of the vote. Montenegro, however, ruled out a collaboration with Chega, which further complicated to form a minority government. Chega, who was still a one-percent party five years ago, was able to record significant gains of votes due to political annoyance and dissatisfaction with the existing government.

The social and political tensions that have shaped the past few years are further fueled by the failed attempt by the PS to preserve the absolute majority. The SP top candidate Pedro Nuno Santos admitted the defeat and announced that he would go to the opposition while he excluded support from a minority government of the conservatives. This faces Portugal before the possibly unstable phase of a minority government.

The way forward

In view of the political landscape and the lost trust in the rulers, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will now have talks with all parties. He will commission the leader of the strongest party, i.e. Luís Montenegro, to form the government. The pressure on the new government is enormous, especially in view of the increased expectations of voters of reforms and effective government.

The new elections were necessary after former Prime Minister António Costa resigned due to a corruption scandal. During his tenure, Costa had solid economic data, but increasing dissatisfaction in the public service and other professional groups opened the political weaknesses of his administration.

The current election results and the uncertainties regarding the future government illustrate the challenges that Portugal is facing, and the potential for continued chaotic conditions in political events.