Expert warns: War between NATO and Russia – countdown to 2027!

Expert warns: War between NATO and Russia – countdown to 2027!

A British military expert, Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), has highlighted the real danger of a military conflict between Russia and NATO in recent comments. According to Arnold, such a war could break out as early as 2027, with the Baltics being targeted as a possible flashpoint. This raises worrying questions about the arms strategy of NATO countries, particularly Germany.

The Bundeswehr urgently needs to implement its defense spending more quickly instead of stretching it out over ten years. Arnold calls for stocks of proven weapon systems to be rapidly expanded, particularly in the area of ​​artillery ammunition. The recommended weapon systems include, for example, the Taurus cruise missile, the Leopard 2 A8 main battle tank and the Boxer armored transport vehicle, all of which are crucial for future military operational capability.

Armament investments and military preparation

Arnold highlights that air defense systems such as IRIS-T and the Gepard anti-aircraft tank have proven to be extremely effective in the Ukraine conflict. He emphasizes that Germany should abandon the idea of ​​acquiring technologically superior American weapons systems such as the F-35 and Patriot air defenses. Instead, robust, reliable systems must be produced in large numbers. In particular, the increasing importance of drones for modern warfare requires a massive increase in production capacity in Germany.

The Suwalki Gap, the land connection between Poland and Lithuania, is identified as a potential trigger for the conflict. Arnold also warns that unintentional military misunderstandings or escalations between NATO countries and Russia could lead to a major conflict at any time.

NATO and military mobility

Since 2014, NATO's focus has been on restoring credible deterrence and defense. This strategy requires significant adjustments in military force distribution and decision-making processes. After the long phase of crisis management, the return to alliance defense has acquired a new urgency through the reduction of NATO headquarters and personnel numbers in order to still be able to actually wage “wars of necessity”.

In this context, the NATO Readiness Initiative 4-30, which aims to make 30 combat aircraft squadrons, 30 large warships and 30 combat battalions operational within 30 days, becomes increasingly important. A central theme of NATO strategy remains military mobility, which is made more difficult by infrastructural challenges and regulatory requirements. The NATO countries have intensified their exercises to relocate larger units in order to be better prepared for possible threats.

Given the tense geopolitical situation and Arnold's warnings, a rapid and decisive response from NATO countries is required to ensure security in Europe. According to Arnold, the conflict with Russia could become a reality in 2027 if appropriate measures are not taken immediately.

Many of the challenges facing NATO today are the result of strategic changes since the end of the Cold War. In order to strengthen trust and credibility within the alliance, reforms and adjustments to military structures are essential.

How vienna.at reports, the international security situation is worrying for many countries. The potential for armed conflict between NATO countries and Russia still exists, further fueled by geopolitical tensions. The preparedness of states and alliances, especially NATO, is crucial to countering such threats.

Ed Arnold warns urgently in a report nau.ch that a conflict in the Baltics could quickly escalate and calls for proactive measures. Such views are supported by the analyzes of the need for stable defense strategies such as those on swp-berlin.org are presented, substantiated.