British elections: Reform UK overtakes Labor and Tories in the election trend!

British elections: Reform UK overtakes Labor and Tories in the election trend!

Großbritannien - On May 19, 2025, the political situation in Great Britain is as dynamic and turbulent. After the surprising victory of the Labor Party in the 2022 parliamentary elections, where Keir has been the first social democratic premier for 14 years, the new government is currently being in growing pressure.

Current surveys prove a decline for both the Labor Party and for the Conservative Party. This is particularly striking, since reform UK, originally founded in 2019 as a Brexit party by Nigel Farage, is clearly leading in the survey results. This party is clipped against immigration and rejects measures against climate change, while at the same time strictly rejecting relationships with the EU.

election trend and survey results

The latest election trends show reform UK with a vote share of 28.9%, followed by Labor, which currently come to 23.4%, and the Tories with only 18.9%. The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party complete the image with shares of 13.9% or 9%. This development could have significant consequences for the political landscape and the upcoming elections that are scheduled for August 2029.

• Reform UK: 28.9%
• Labor: 23.4%
• Tories: 18.9%
• liberal democrats: 13.9%
• Green Party: 9%
• Scottish National Party: 2.6%
• Plaid Cymru: 1%
• other parties: 2.3%

In the last 30 days, UK reform has an increase of 4.0%, while the Tories had to accept a decrease of 3.1%. The current proportion of votes of the government parties is 24.0%, which underlines the uncertainty and the challenges with which the current government is confronted.

parliamentary strategy and possible coalitions

Current estimates indicate that the Labor Party could provide about 156 MPs and Reform UK 193 MPs. At least 326 out of 650 votes are required for stable government formation. Therefore, possible coalitions are of crucial importance. Much combinations include, for example:

• Reform UK + Tories + Liberal Democrats
• Labor + Tories + Liberal Democrats
• Reform UK + Liberal Democrats + Green Party
• Labor + Liberal Democrats + Green Party + Scottish National Party + Plaid Cymru

The political situation in Great Britain remains tense, especially since the next election could offer a chance to fundamentally change the balance of power in parliament. The splitting of the voices could require careful tactical tactics to form a plausible government coalition and to master the challenges of time.

Overall, it can be seen that Keir Strander and the Labor Party have to make efforts to stop their decline in the surveys and convince voters of their political ideas. The king, Charles III, remains the head of state in this complex political situation, while the campaigns become more intense.

For further information and detailed analyzes, we refer to the reporting of OE24 and Politpro .