Bad years for incumbent - will be better in 2025?

Bad years for incumbent - will be better in 2025?

2024 may be entered into history as the year in which the voters sent the reigning politicians from the office. The year, which was advertised as the "year of democracy", brought the largest number of elections to date and was also the worst year for the incumbent. According to an analysis of the Financial Times lost to election in a developed country, Voices - the first time that this has happened since the beginning of the records.

The change of incumbent

In the past, it was an iron rule of politics that those who are in office have the best chances of re -election. Today, on the other hand, voters seem to be more ready to reject the incumbents of the incumbent. In the United States, for example, Kamala Harris had to pay a prize that she did not distance herself from the political decisions of the incumbent Joe Biden, which benefited Donald Trump.

prospects for 2025

What could bring for the incumbent in 2025? The rules seem to have changed. In the past few decades, the safest way to win a public office has already been in office. But the advantages of the office no longer help as before. According to Ben Ansell , professor for comparative democratic institutions at the University of Oxford, wealthy democracies have developed in their instability like poorer democracies in Latin America or India.

inflation as the main cause

The reason for the difficulties of incumbent in 2024 seems to be mostly inflationary nature. After the Covid 19 pandemic and the extensive invasion of Russia into Ukraine, prices in many countries rose. During this time, global inflation reached its highest level since the 1990s. Voters deteriorate inflation, and although the causes are often global, the governments that are responsible for the increasing costs.

The teachings from Mexico, where Claudia Sheinbaum was elected by the ruling Morena party as a ray of hope for the incumbent in Latin America, indicate that measures such as price upper limits could help to appease the voters.

changes in voter behavior

The election losses of incumbent worldwide cannot be explained solely by material factors. Cultural and structural changes also seem to play a role. Roberto Foa , co-director of the Center for the Future of Democracy at the University of Cambridge, indicates a generation-related trend towards lower party political loyalty. In many democracies there is a higher willingness of the voters to change their voices between the elections.

prospects for upcoming elections

A brief overview of the upcoming elections indicates that 2025 could also become a challenging year for incumbent in democracies. After failing to hold his coalition together, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will probably be voted out in the new election in February. The Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could be replaced in office after almost a decade.

In Europe, the picture could also complicate itself due to propaganda campaigns that are encouraged by Kremlin-affinated actors. Moldova's President Maia Sandu won the re -election in October with a wafer -thin lead. However, it remains unclear whether your pro-Western party can hold the majority in parliament in May. The Kremlin authorities rejected the allegations of the election fraud.

conclusion

2025 could turn out to be a reduced version of 2024, with fewer elections, but still fighting officials. A positive view could state that this is not a bad sign as long as the voters are dissatisfied with their leaders and hold them responsible. Political scientist Adam Przeworski once defined democracy as "a system in which parties lose elections". But uninterrupted defeats should trigger warning signals. Elections send signals to the governments that both punishments and rewards are necessary to gain the trust of the electorate.