Putin counters Trump in the Ukraine crisis with a no

Putin counters Trump in the Ukraine crisis with a no

a "no" is not a "yes" if it is "maybe", a "probably not" or a "only if". This painfully predictable lesson has revealed the first real diplomatic initiative of the Trump administration in the context of the war with the Kremlin. They were hopelessly led behind the light.

The demand for an unconditional ceasefire

The United States called for a 30-day, front-wide ceasefire without conditions. On Tuesday, after a acting, one -week waiting time and several hundred further losses - they received a relatively small prisoner exchange, hockey games, more conversations and - according to Kremlin - a one -month break for attacks on the "energy infrastructure".

energy infrastructure or infrastructure in general?

The last wording is the beginning of a easily avoidable technical mining field. According to the US President Donald Trump and his press spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt referred to "energy and infrastructure", which includes two completely different facts. Russia explains that Ukraine's electricity networks and gas supplies will not attack, while it has mercilessly done it in recent years. Winter in Ukraine is often a gambling with cold and missing reserves.

The unclear definition of infrastructure

The White House, on the other hand, has, be it - be it due to a misunderstanding, a typo or a translation nuance - potentially extended these ceasefire to all areas that are considered an infrastructure: bridges, important roads, ports or railways. This resulted in conditions that make it almost impossible for Russia's tireless pace of air strikes that were continued on Tuesday evening as usual.

a shaky balance

With the summer in front of the door and the urgent need to reduce heating in Ukraine, the suspension of attacks on the energy infrastructure could be considered less than concession. For Kiev, the requirement means that attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, but the elimination of one of the strongest forms of attack that Ukraine has. For months they have used long -distance roar and rockets to hit Russia's oil refineries and pipelines, which caused serious damage to the most important financing instrument of the Kremlin, the export of its hydrocarbons.

The result of the conversations with Putin

It is important to emphasize that the long-announced phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has hardly brought anything but the foreseeable fact that the Kremlin boss believes that he can easily outsmart his counterpart. The exchange of 175 prisoners and the return of 23 seriously wounded Ukrainians is a minor agreement that seems more like a long overdue measure.

difficult negotiations in the shadow of diplomacy

Apart from this and the break in the attacks that was agreed, Russia used the one -week delay and the phone call to emphasize that all foreign aid and the exchange of intelligence information should be stopped as part of an agreement. “Working groups” is a Russian diplomatic euphemism for disputes about the disputes. Putin demonstrated this by apparently starting the suspension of energy attacks, but all points that he did not want to discuss shouted for an indefinite period.

technical traps in the negotiations

Some of these technical traps were laid by the basic nature of Jeddah's original explanation by the United States and Ukraine. It was admirable, but extremely simplified to request an immediate, one -month stop of all hostility in a war -demanded war. The proposal did not take into account how long it would take to implement such a step, especially if soldiers are often cut off from the command and did not mention who would monitor compliance.

outlook on future negotiations

The confusion about what was agreed opened a gap in any future peace agreement that is big enough so that Putin can enforce a further comprehensive invasion. It remains to be seen whether both sides have parked employees after the interview in order to develop an identical explanation.

conclusion: an uncertain peace

The Vaudeville Theater of the past month should offer little consolation that the war suddenly heads for peace. Yes, the Trump administration spoke of peace in a way that nobody did in this war before. Nevertheless, it was confirmed in a short time that Moscow was looking for weaknesses and makes use of it mercilessly.

Trump believed that he could convince or outwit Putin. So far, however, he has not done this and has lost significantly in this first direct diplomatic duel. His next decision defines her life for millions of Ukrainians. Will he lose interest, exert pressure or make concessions again? It is a dizzying view.

his opponent does not focus on improved relationships with the decades of opponents of the United States or its current president, Donald Trump, but on victory in one of the most existential conflicts since the Nazis.

These perspectives on the agreement could not be more different. The art of the one is used more than that of the other.