Russia intensifies offensive in Ukraine - effects on war

Russia intensifies offensive in Ukraine - effects on war

According to current reports of Ukrainian officers and an analysis of information from the general staff in Kiev, the offensive of the Russian army has increased at the front. Soldiers who have spoken to CNN fear that this could be the beginning of a major spring offensive by Vladimir Putin's troops from which Ukraine has been warning for some time. However, it indicates that the Russian leader will take care of possible reactions from US President Donald Trump, who will decide in the next few weeks whether the Kremlin is seriously interested in peace, as Foreign Minister Marco Rubio explained last week.

Where do the current fights take place?

In the past few months, some of the most violent fights in the south of the city of Pokrovsk, a once important logistics center of the Ukrainian armed forces in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian army has achieved several small tactical successes since the beginning of the year by pushing some of the Russian advances back towards Pokrovsk who had come to the city center to a few kilometers.

A Ukrainian educational officer who is used in the region told CNN that the Russian armed forces have become more active again in the past ten days and that additional troops and vehicles for upcoming attacks. "We see it on the drone shots and hear about it in the radio broadcasts," said Deroffizier, whose name is not published by CNN.

Since Pokrovsk is strongly defended and the military replenishment has largely been relocated there, the main goal of the Russians could be to penetrate west instead of north.

Current threats and goals

The social media of the Ukrainian soldiers have described fears of a possible circulation in one place and the breakthrough of one line of defense on another in the past few days. "The front line in this area has entered an active phase. The Russians will not stop," wrote a Ukrainian with the call sign Muchnoi on Telegram. The goal of the advance is a city called Novopavlivka, according to the officer.

"You will enter the Dnipropetrovsk region - this is one of the most important tasks that have been given to the Russian command." An advance into the Dnipropetrovsk region would be important because it would be the first time that Russian troops would gain a foothold there. According to the Ukrainian map service Deepstate, Putin's forces are only six kilometers from the region, while evacuations are already taking place at the border, Dnipropetrowsker reports.

rising battles and strategic changes

The Situation in Luhansk, the easternmost region of Ukraine, is also tense because the Russian armed forces have the greatest control here - only a few small areas are in Ukrainian hands. In the past few weeks, the Russian troops, especially north of the city of Lyman, have made constant progress. "It is hard, we have to work on the stabilization of the front and push the enemy back systematically, otherwise the gangrene will spread," wrote a Ukrainian officer on Telegram.

An analysis of CNN of the fighting that were recorded by the general staff of Ukraine has shown an increase in Russian activities on all front sections in the past two weeks. According to the data collected, the average of the daily clashes had increased from around 140 to around 180 clashes per day since March 23, which corresponds to an increase of around 30%

Russian tactics in use

Ukrainian soldiers report a large number of Russian tactics in the past few weeks. A Ukrainian officer with the call sign Alex described that Russian troops progress in columns, which include both armored and unprotected vehicles - about four to five shelter tanks and tanks, while "the rest are trucks, cars and golf carts". He expressed skepticism about the prospect of significant Russian progress when the current maneuvers show a real lack of armored vehicles.

A Ukrainian commander reported that the Russian forces in the region suffered serious losses, but continued to continue. "A unit in this area loses ten to 50 Russians a day," he said.

look into the future

Despite the pessimistic assessments, it is important to maintain the perspective. The territory that Russia conquers remains low. The British Minister of Defense estimates that Russian progress has decreased steadily in the past six months. Even if Russia does not win a lot of land, it still makes progress in other areas, which leads to a larger strategic goal.

Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj remains under pressure from Washington to publicly stand up for the end of the war as long as a peace agreement is fair and secure. In contrast, the Kremlin explains to only want peace if the “causes” of the conflict are addressed, which means that Ukraine should be pushed back in Moscow's sphere of influence.

In reality, Putin's announcements and ambitions indicate a long -term strategy that may favor war fatigue on both sides. Peace negotiations mean little for the soldiers on the front. "Believe me, from my experience you don't think about it. There is an order to follow and survive the desire," a soldier told CNN.