Putin's war plans: BND warns of impending escalation in Europe!

Putin's war plans: BND warns of impending escalation in Europe!

On March 28, 2025, a current analysis by the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) alarmed the international community. Loud oe24.at Fears of war have increased in Europe, and Vladimir Putin is expected to prepare for a full-scale war. This is reported by renowned media such as the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, WDR and NDR. The BND's assessment is that Russia was not weakened by the Ukraine war and continues to pursue imperialist goals.

The BND is convinced that the Russian president is dissatisfied with the current state of Ukraine. The report highlights that Russia may seek “limited military action against one or more NATO countries” to test NATO. An example of this could be a military intervention in Estonia to test the seriousness of NATO's commitment to assistance enshrined in Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.

Russia's military ambitions

The BND's forecast that the Russian armed forces will be increased to up to 1.5 million soldiers by 2026 is particularly alarming. This goes hand in hand with a rapidly increasing arms industry, which is increasing military spending at a “breathtaking pace”. The move could be aimed at testing the US response under the current presidency of Donald Trump.

Since 2014, NATO has faced the challenge of restoring credible deterrence and defense. How swp-berlin.org Reportedly, the alliance has made various adjustments in the military area and in the command structure. Necessary adjustments and reforms are required in order to do justice to the changed security policy conditions.

NATO challenges

NATO must not only respond to external threats, but also deal with the challenges of rapidly deploying and deploying its forces in Europe. A central element is the NATO Readiness Initiative 4-30 of 2018, which aims to make 30 combat aircraft squadrons, 30 large warships and 30 combat troop battalions operational within 30 days.

The need for rapid response and improving military mobility are key issues, particularly due to adjustments resulting from the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. NATO countries are increasingly conducting large-scale deployment exercises, while challenging discussions about the balance between political control and military decision-making continue.

In view of current developments and the BND's assessment, the situation in Europe remains tense. Russia's possible military plans and NATO's reactions to them could have a significant impact on the security policy landscape.