Putin celebrates on Victory Day, but the joy could be short-lived

Putin celebrates on Victory Day, but the joy could be short-lived

Every year, spring over Moscow is accompanied by clouds saturated with powerful chemicals to ensure clear skies on the occasion of the most important national holiday, May 9th. This year, however, it is not rain that threatens, but the threat of potentially deadly Ukrainian drones.

Security concerns before the parade

In the days leading up to this year's Red Square parade, several drone strikes have led to air closures at all four Moscow airports, increasing nervousness in the Russian capital. In other parts of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia, local celebrations have already had to be canceled for acute security reasons. But the main event in Moscow is simply too important to abandon and is taking place under tense circumstances in the Kremlin.

Meaning of the Victory Festival

The often spectacular and colorful military parade commemorates the defeat of Nazi Germany by the Soviet Union in World War II and the millions of Russian lives lost in that conflict. But for the Kremlin, the event also represents an opportunity to showcase modern Russian firepower and mobilize patriotic support for power-hungry President Vladimir Putin.

International guests and geopolitical tensions

This year, on its 80th anniversary, the parade could be particularly valuable to the Kremlin, making it a particularly tempting target for those who want to harm the Kremlin - especially the increasingly skilled Ukrainian drone operators, whose cities suffer almost daily from Russian aerial attacks. Tens of thousands of patriotic Russians are expected to applaud the tank formations and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Putin has also invited an impressive number of foreign leaders, including China's Xi Jinping and Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, to underscore his personal attempt to return to the world stage.

Reactions from Ukraine

Even as a host of international leaders gather, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky - who criticized Russia's call for a three-day ceasefire during the celebrations as insufficient - is not ruling out an attack by his troops or by sympathizers inside Russia. In a recent speech, Zelensky warned that Kiev "cannot be responsible for what is happening in Russia" and that they "will not play to create a comfortable atmosphere that will enable Putin's exit from isolation on May 9."

Challenges for the Kremlin

The Ukrainian president's words, which the Russian Foreign Ministry interpreted as a direct threat, overshadowed an event that would otherwise mark the Kremlin's significant victories on the Ukrainian battlefield as well as in international diplomacy. China remains a key supporter of Russia, and Xi Jinping's high-profile presence at the victory parade testifies to the strength of this relationship. Equally significant is the dramatic improvement in relations with the United States under Trump, whose administration appears committed to restoring friendly economic and diplomatic ties with Moscow.

Impact on international cooperation

A recent US peace proposal suggested that the Trump administration would formally recognize Crimea, which was annexed by Moscow in violation of international law in 2014, as Russian territory, which would call into question years of US policy. Trump's wavering military support for Ukraine as well as tariffs on close US allies have caused unprecedented tensions within the Western alliance, while they have been enthusiastically welcomed in Russia. In a display of overheated optimism, Russian state-controlled media even speculated that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio might personally attend the "Victory Day" parade - along with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un - although the Kremlin has officially refused to confirm the presence of these figures.

A bleak outlook

But not everything goes according to plan for the Kremlin. The security threat hanging over Moscow's Victory Parade could foreshadow the challenges ahead for the Kremlin in Ukraine's ongoing war, which shows few signs of ending. Recent Western estimates of Russian casualties, traditionally kept secret by the Kremlin, are approaching a catastrophic one million dead or injured - a figure that is expected to continue to rise as fighting continues.

Economic difficulties and political uncertainties

There are also alarming signs that Russia's hitherto resilient economy may be beginning to collapse, as global crude oil prices, vital to Moscow's coffers, continue to fall and worries rise about a global economic slowdown. Worryingly for Moscow, a frustrated Trump — who boasted before taking office that he could quickly end the Ukraine war — has encountered difficulties in that effort and is now considering renewed military support for Ukraine as well as new sanctions against Moscow. Soon there will be victory in Russia, but beyond the pomp and ceremony of Red Square, a Russian victory in Ukraine remains a distant goal.