Assad's rule in Syria is crumbling: Russia, Iran and Hisbollah weaken

Assad's rule in Syria is crumbling: Russia, Iran and Hisbollah weaken

"Our Five forever"-this slogan was omnipresent during the era of President Hafez al-Assad, the father of today's Syrian President, in Syria. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the idea that this serious and strict Syrian guide could live forever caused dark humor among my Syrian friends when I lived and worked in Aleppo. Hafez al-Assad died in June 2000-so it was not immortal. But his regime survives under the leadership of his son Bashar al-Assad.

The challenges of the Assad regime

There were moments when the survival of the BASHAR al-Assad regime appeared questionable. When the so-called Arab spring 2011 swept across the region and disempowered autocrats in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, while in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria, mass demonstrations started to write the Assad Dynasty.

but the allies Syriens - Iran , the Hisbollah in libanon and Russia - came to the rescue. In recent years, the conflict in Syria has seemed to have stalled between a corrupt, brutal regime in Damascus and a split, often extreme opposition.

The changed perception of Bashar al-Assad

previously avoided by his Arab neighbors, Bashar al-Assad gradually recovered the dubious respectability that Arab regime grind each other. But was the nightmare of the Syrian civil war really over? Did Bashar Al-Assad won? Many, although large parts of Syria were controlled by a Kurdish militia and Turkish -supported Sunni factions supported by the United States. In addition, Hisbollah, Iran and Russia supported the regime while the United States controlled areas in eastern Syria. Israel carried out air strikes when and where it wanted, and IS, although beaten, was still able to carry out raids.

The fact that the government in Damascus still kept up after all of this seemed to be a success. But this illusion of a regime victory broke up this week when the opposition, led by the formerly al-Qaida-connected Jabhat al-Nusra-now renamed Hay’at Tahrir al-sham- An offensive from the province of Idlib started and managed to penetrate into the center of Aleppo within just 72 hours.

The surprising resolution of the opposition

until Saturday evening, Syrian accounts on social media were full of reports on the collapse of government forces in the north of the country, while rebels advanced to the central city of Hama. There, in 1982, Bashar's father had his army and secret services massacred thousands of his opponents to end the Muslim Brotherhood uprising. Why did the dam broke in just a few days?

The pressure on Syria’s allied

The obvious explanation is that Syria's key allies - Russia, Iran and the Hisbollah - have come under pressure and have reduced their vigilance. The Hisbollah, which played a key role in supporting the regime in the darkest days of the civil war, pulled after the 7. October 2023 Many of their troops back to fight Israel, which in the meantime killed most of the group's leadership.

Russia also played a crucial role when it was sent to Syria in September 2015 to support the government in Damascus. But Moscow's top priority now applies to the war in Ukraine . After all, Iran's consultants and bases in Syria were often attacked by Israel last year.

The challenge of the Assad dynasty

In addition to all of these factors, there is the basic reality of longevity. The Assad dynasty has been in power for 53 years, since 1971. Während ihr bloßes Überleben an sich schon eine Leistung ist, hat sie ansonsten wenig Tangibles vorzuweisen. Endemic corruption and mismanagement already burdened the economy before the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Since then, life has developed from poorly too catastrophic for the average Syrians. The war cost hundreds of thousands of life, while millions of others were either sold or fled into exile.

Again and again the Assad Dynasty has survived internal and external challenges since 1971 and continued to live to fight. But nothing, not regime and not a guide, lasts forever. Everything will come to an end at some point.