Trump offers Russia generous peace for Ukraine
Trump offers Russia generous peace for Ukraine
The imposition of a deadline for negotiations about a deal that you urgently want is a risky tactic if the only way out is in the termination of the conversations.
Trump and geopolitics
President Donald Trump threatened this and emphasizes that it is obviously Simple to negotiate a deal with Russia than with Ukraine. But that seems to be a risky misunderstanding of his own situation. It is easier for Trump to put pressure on Kiev because Ukraine is dependent on US help and intelligence services for their survival. But that doesn't mean that Russia is more ready for a deal. In fact, Moscow seems to take your time.
The difference between business and geopolitics
Here a large gap between the lifestyle in business and complex geopolitical negotiations. Trump is not in the real estate business - he doesn't try to get Putin to buy something. Instead, he vigorously pushes the fact that the Kremlin accepts conditions to end the war that Putin has clearly recognized that it will improve over time and not deteriorate.
Putin's reactions to Trump
On Thursday, Trump briefly put pressure on Putin and posted "Wladimir: Stop!" after Russian rockets Kiev had targeted and killed eight people. But even the scolding happened in a friendly tone, and it seemed as if Trump was more about the time of the Russian attack than was upset by the losses.
the ceasefire and its challenges
The Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly rejected the 44-day-old offer of the United States and Ukraine for a 30-day, unconditional ceasefire. Instead, the Kremlin unilaterally explained a ceasefire at Easter, which lasted 30 hours, which the Ukraine saw about 5,000 times injured. Both sides accuse each other of having violated an energy and infrastructure caffeine in March and April.
The uncertainty of diplomatic agreements
These gimmicks with ceasefire stalls raise a big question: Are diplomatic agreements complied with or can they actually deliver results? The allies of Ukraine refer to Easter armistice-one-sided, in short and sudden-as proof that the Kremlin keeps up with ceasefire for supplies and take place to win time to pursue military goals later.
Trump’s deal: what is expected?
A bigger problem with Trump's proposed deal is that it is not publicly known what he expects from Moscow. The prospect of permanent ceasefire, given the events of the past month, seems far. A broader US Russia-Détente may be desired by the White House, but without a sustainable agreement for Ukraine, this would lead to a long-term crack in the transatlantic alliance and even in NATO. This could worry many established Republicans, damage numerous Americans, damage the dollar and undermine the geopolitical position of the United States. These real costs outweigh the advantages of a probably short peace with the Kremlin.
Zelensky’s role and the ambiguities
Another problem for Trump is the ambiguity of expectations of President Zelensky. In his post, he said to Zelensky: "Get it ready!", But what the "ES" means in concrete terms remains unclear. Trump made it clear that he did not ask Kiev to recognize the Crimea annexed by Russia as part of Russia, as the Ukrainian constitution prohibits such an action and also demands that Ukraine want to become a NATO member-a goal that Trump may also want to have.
preliminary measures and geopolitical effects
It seems that Trump's deal is asking Ukraine to accept the front lines and possibly request the US recognition of Crimea as Russian, but both concessions would be of limited benefits. The Crimea is a peninsula associated with parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia, but only separated from Russia by a precarious bridge. European and Ukrainian sanctions would continue to isolate Crimea even according to a possible peace agreement, and both Europe and Kiev have made it clear that they will not accept recognition as part of Russia - a violation of territorial integrity.
The dynamics of the negotiations and Putin's standing ability
The question is whether a deal is in the interest of the front lines in the interest of Moscow. Putin's latest attempt to delay the diplomatic process indicates that the Kremlin thinks that his best military days may still be imminent. But the problems of Ukraine-recruitment and possible financial bottlenecks, if the funds from the bidges era expire next year-are also not to be neglected.
The incompatible positions
A predominant problem is that Putin thinks that time is on his side while Trump repeatedly declared the clock tick. These two opposing positions will not cause a sustainable agreement. The Kremlin may have recognized wise that he can keep getting small concessions from Trump for months to build a geopolitical situation that benefits him. Just think about how the world changed in the first 90 days of Trump's presidency in favor of Moscow.
In every critical phase, Moscow sees how Trump hits Zelensky. The Kremlin realizes that there is hardly any consequences for the violation of the energy or one-sided ceasefire. After all, it sees an extremely impatient US president, whose team often deals with the facts and his important envoy, Steve Witkoff, was recently hardly able to name the regions of Ukraine occupied by Russia.
looking for a solution
The longer Moscow talks, the better the deal appears. The longer it fights, the more advantageous the battlefield will probably develop. The incentives for the Kremlin to keep diplomacy alive are great to agree to an early, chaotic agreement from which it may return later. But there is no reason to believe that Moscow wants to have conversations that actually end the war or stop fighting.
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