Trump's trade war with China is hurting agricultural voters

Trump's trade war with China is hurting agricultural voters

US President Donald Trump has imposed an additional customs fee of145%on all Chinese imports, despite suspending his "reciprocal" tariffs on all other countries last week, in what is seen as a surprise turning point.

China's reaction to the new tariffs

China, on the other hand, is not backing down and says it will “fight to the end” if Trump further escalates tensions in the already developing trade war. On Friday, China also significantly increased its own tariffs on US imports.

Connection between the USA and China in trade

Both countries are closely linked in trade, although China sells about three times as much to the US as it buys. The result is a significant trade deficit of almost$300 billionin favor of China, which Trump wants to compensate with additional tariffs.

China's food imports from the USA

China mainly imports agricultural products from the United States, including soybeans, oilseeds and grains. Soybean imports, most of which are used for animal feed, already suffered declines during Trump's first term, when there was a previous trade war came.

Impact of tariffs on soy exports

In this context, China is again trying to diversify the sources of its imports and is looking for alternatives in other countries for agricultural products. After the imposition of tariffs of 125% on all US imports, imports of American agricultural products such as soybeans could decrease fall almost to zero.

U.S. soybean imports to China are now subject to an aggregate interest rate of135%, which consists of a 10% tariff on certain agricultural products in March and the 125% levy announced on Friday.

The rise of Brazil as a soybean exporter

During the first U.S.-China trade war, Brazil — the world's leading soybean exporter — gained attention as China's imports of the legume soared in recent years. Brazil's soy exports to China have increased by more than since 2010280%, while exports from the USA are stagnating.

China's trade relations with Brazil

Last November, Xi visited Brazil to strengthen ties between the two countries. In 2024, China was the main sales market for Brazilian soybeans, accounting for more than73%of the country's total soybean exports.

China's future soy import strategy

With production expected to rise — Brazil's soybean crop is set to hit record highs this year — China could increase imports from Brazil and other South American countries such as Argentina, thethird largest soybean producerto Brazil and the USA.

Consequences for US farmers

The US agricultural sector lost during the trade war of $27 billion, with 71% of losses linked to soybeans, the American Soybean Association found.

Policy implications for farmers

Farmers, many of whom live in states that supported Trump in the 2024 election, continue to struggle with the fallout. Only Illinois, the largest soybean producer, and Minnesota, the third-largest soybean producer, endorsed former Vice President Kamala Harris in November.

China's search for new trading partners

China is looking for other allies beyond Brazil to counteract US tariffs and expand trade cooperation. On Thursday, China declared its willingness to cooperate the countries of ASEAN to work together to strengthen communication and coordination. At the beginning of this week, China's trade minister discussed EU representatives to resume talks on trade stimulus and electric vehicle negotiations.

This article was co-authored by CNN's Simone McCarthy.