Trump raises customs break: confusion about the mutual tariffs

Trump raises customs break: confusion about the mutual tariffs

The 90--day deadline , which President Donald Trump has set to complete trade agreements with the USA Customs to be expected. What will happen after their expiry at 12:01 p.m. ET on July 9th.

high operations for the global economy

The situation is serious, because the World economy is on the brink. On April 2, a date that Trump described as a "day of liberation", he presented new, "reciprocal" customs tariffs for important trading partners in the United States, with increases of up to 50%. These sentences are the highest that the United States has raised for foreign goods for over a century. Economists quickly warned of an upcoming recession that could not only affect certain countries, but the whole world.

effects on the financial markets

When the tariffs came into force on April 9, there was a drop in the course on Wall Street, and the bond market reacted with resistance, which forced Trump forced a three -month break to give the countries more time to consolidate trade agreements with the USA. He explained that the investors had become "a little nervous, a bit fearful".

Since then, almost all imported people have been subject to a minimum customs of 10%. The stock markets have not only caught up all losses, but also Numerous new record heights . Inflation has hardly increased . However, if the tariffs rise again and attract inflation, these profits could quickly disappear.

progress in trade agreements?

Despite months of meeting with foreign government representatives and countless claims that several trading partners are about to conclude agreements, only three trade agreements have been officially announced. One of them is with Vietnam , which is not yet completed and of which is little known about.

The tactics of the Trump administration

Nevertheless, the Trump administration advertises that a number of agreements are imminent. At the same time, the President has threatened to send letters to countries that do not conclude any contracts and inform them of the amount of the tariffs to their exports to the USA. Before July 9, the trump administration official threatened to simply return to the customs tariffs from April or possibly even to introduce even higher taxes. They also considered extending the break for countries that "negotiate in good faith", but without define what that means or which countries it concerns.

Trump's freedom of choice

It is unclear where Trump, who has the last word, stands. "We can do what we want. We could extend it; we could also make it shorter," said Trump recently. "I want to make it shorter. I would just send letters to everyone: 'Congratulations, you pay 25%'." He also added: "We look at how a country treats us - they are good or not so good. Some countries don't care, we just set a high number."

On Friday, he announced that in the coming days he would begin with sending letters "The tariffs will be between maybe 60% or 70% and 10% or 20%," said Trump.

For many countries, such high sentences would be an even greater economic blow compared to the tariffs that Trump announced in April. However, countries could still have the opportunity to negotiate because Trump said that most of the new sentences will only come into force from August 1st.

America's growing pain threshold for higher tariffs

The Agreement, which Trump announced on Wednesday with Vietnam, provides for a minimum customs rate of 20% on Vietnamese goods, twice so High like during the three -month break and leaves the possibility that countries may not be able to achieve lower sentences, even if they reach a trade agreement. However, if one considers that the tariffs on Vietnam should increase to at least 46% if the sentences announced in April remained - which was one of the highest ones that Trump has announced - a set of 20% suddenly appears as a relief.

This could be a conscious strategy on the part of Trump to comply with his great election promise to raise higher tariffs to other nations in order to increase income and bring jobs back to the USA. "Overall, we consider the US Vietnam Agreement to be a positive step towards more stable bilateral agreements for the USA and more clarity for investors," said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global director of shares at UBS Global Wealth Management.

"The risks in connection with trade could remain as long as the negotiations continue, but we think that the influence on the market should become weaker because President Trump's negotiation tactics are increasingly familiar," she added. "Ultimately, we expect the US administration to prioritize economic stability over maximal duties, especially before the intermediate elections 2026."