Iran is upgrading its missile program, reports goods delivered by China

Iran is upgrading its missile program, reports goods delivered by China

A ship carrying 1,000 tons of a Chinese-made chemical shipment that serves as a key component of the Iranian military's fuel docked outside the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas on Thursday. This could be an indication that Iranian missile production is returning to normal after Israel carried out devastating and embarrassing attacks on key factories last year.

Important Chemical: Sodium Perchlorate

The ship, named Golbon, left the Chinese port of Taicang three weeks ago carrying most of a 1,000-ton shipment of sodium perchlorate. This chemical is the main ingredient for producing the solid fuel that powers Iran's medium-range conventional missiles, according to two European intelligence sources.

Iran's production capacity

The sodium perchlorate could be enough to produce fuel for about 260 solid rocket motors of the Kheibar Shekan rockets or 200 Haj Qasem rockets. This delivery comes as Iran has suffered a series of regional setbacks, notably the defeat of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hezbollah's losses in Lebanon. After Israel's attack on Iran's missile production facilities in October, some Western experts thought it could be at least a year before Iran could resume solid fuel production. However, this delivery suggests that Iran may not be far away from being able to restart its missile production already.

Involvement of the SSJO

The shipment was purchased on behalf of the Procurement Authority of the Self-Sufficiency Jihad Organization (SSJO), which is part of the Iranian body responsible for developing Iran's ballistic missiles. The second ship, the Jairan, is not yet ready and still has to be loaded in China. According to the sources, the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) operates both ships. The Jairan will transport the rest of the 1,000 tons to Iran.

Reactions and sanctions

The U.S. government and the United Kingdom have imposed sanctions on IRISL, with the U.S. State Department describing the shipping company as a “preferred shipping line for Iranian proliferators and procurement agents.” The UK Treasury noted that the company was “involved in hostile activities” by Iran and highlighted links to Iran’s defense sector. Both the Golbon and Jairan are subject to US sanctions.

Meanwhile, China remains a diplomatic and economic ally of sanctioned Iran, condemning "unilateral" US sanctions against the country and welcoming Tehran to international blocs led by Beijing and Moscow, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS.

China and chemical procurement

China remains Iran's largest energy buyer, although the country has not reported purchases of Iranian oil in its official customs statistics since 2022, analysts said. Despite the historic ties between China and Iran's defense sector, observers note that Beijing has scaled back its security ties over the past decade as it seeks to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

The role of sodium perchlorate

While Iran needs solid fuel for a range of missiles, including smaller air defense weapons, the majority of such supplies are likely to benefit Iran's ballistic missile system. Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, explained that trade in sodium perchlorate is not restricted by Western sanctions, but it can be chemically converted into ammonium perchlorate - a fuel and oxidizer that is considered a controlled product.

Insight into Iran's military capabilities

Although Iran has in the past highlighted its ability to produce ammonium perchlorate itself, this shipment points to supply chain bottlenecks as domestic procurement of the precursors is insufficient to meet missile production needs. However, in recent years, Iran's solid fuel production infrastructure has expanded dramatically, Hinz said.

The Kheibar Shekan missiles have a range of 1,420 km, while their Haj Qasem models can reach targets up to 1,450 km. Despite their technical simplicity, their range makes them important for attacks on Israel. Variants of these missiles were used by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen against Israel, although the distance was originally outside the missiles' standard range. However, the range could be extended through modifications to the warhead mass or secondary propulsion units.

Solid engines are also used in Iran's short-range missiles, previously used against US bases in the region and in exports to Russia. According to the Israel Defense Forces, at least one wreckage of a Keibar Shakan missile has been recovered following Iran's missile attack on October 1, 2024. A Western intelligence report confirmed that about 50 intermediate-range solid-fuel rockets were fired at Israel during that attack.

The Iranian armed forces are said to have more than 3,000 ballistic missiles, although the exact number of each type of missile is unknown. A Western intelligence official told CNN that although relevant US government agencies are aware of the shipment, concerns about the shipment are limited. However, if Iran were to divert the chemicals toward missile production, particularly weapons destined for Russia, it would be of greater interest.

The Iranian government declined to respond to questions from CNN for this article.