Two wars changed Syria's fate - what follows remains uncertain

Two wars changed Syria's fate - what follows remains uncertain

There is an opportunity in every crisis, and a crisis lurks in every chance. The surprising advance of the Syrian opposition Within a week, the unintentional result of two other conflicts, one close and distant. This leaves several crucial US allies with a new and largely unknown Islamist force that manages large parts of their strategic neighbors-if not most, given the rapid events until they read this.

The diplomatic situation in Syria

Syria has absorbed so much diplomatic pressure in the past 20 years that the current change seems to have appeared out of nowhere. Since Iraqinvasion, the US has had difficulty finding a policy for Syria that took into account the different needs of its allies - Israel, Jordan, Turkey and temporary partners such as Iraq and Lebanon.

The role of Assad and its allies

Syria was always the crazy link in the region: it combined Iraq's oil with the Mediterranean, the Shiites of Iraq and Iran with Lebanon and the southern NATO-Bauchland Turkey with the deserts of Jordan. George W. Bush called it as part of his axis of evil; Obama didn't want to touch it, for fear of further damaging it; Donald Trump bombed it, very quickly.

The influence of external actors

The rapidly changing fate of Bashar al-Assad was not really decided in Syria, but in South Beyrut and Donetsk. Without the physical support of the Air Force of Russia and the Iranian proxy militias Hezbollah, he would ultimately be liked.

The brutal but effective two months long war of Israel against Hezbollah has probably paid little attention to Assad's fate. But this war may have decided. Likewise, 34 months ago, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was hardly considered how few jets or troops Moscow would leave to support his allies in the Middle East. The war of wear and tear has made Russia "unable" to help Assad, as the elected President Donald Trump noticed on Saturday.

Iran's limited ability to act

In the past six months, Iran has been enormously restricted because the war with Israel, which normally took place in the shade or was denied, passed into high -risk and largely ineffective remote attacks. So far, Tehran's support has had little to do, only called for a joint explanation with Syria and Iraq to "take collective measures to confront the rebels".

The Middle East tumbles, since the concepts regarded as a matter of course - like the ubiquitous strength of Iran and the solidity of Russia - dismantle as allies - while they encounter new realities. Assad prevailed as a leader of a blooddly minority, not through cunning or perseverance, but because Iran murdered for him and bombed Moscow for him.

Turkish interests and the conflict with Syria

When established regional powers suddenly appear incapable of acting, there is often a considerable risk. But this has taken Turkey, a NATO member who had to deal with the most episodes of the Syria conflict.

Ankara had to follow the long -term game over Syria and has been home to more than three million Syrian refugees since 2012. While the SDF, which were trained and equipped by the USA to combat the ISIS, have developed a fortress along its border, the problem of Syria for Ankara has never really disappeared. One day it would be necessary to change the permanent chaos in its favor.

The rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Shams

The comprehensive offensive of Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS) showed a sophisticated strategy by conveying the different ethnic groups in Syria that they were considered one in a new society. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan indicated that he had tried to negotiate the future of Syria with Assad, which failed. He wished the offensive happiness to the Syrian capital - a message that was not subtle.

remains unclear who Türkiye actually strengthened. HTS started as al-Qaida, but found Isis too extreme and is now trying to suggest that they have developed further. The history of such developments is often confusing. While Turkey probably laid the explosive for the HTS attacks, the speed of Assad's collapse could have come.

The uncertain future of Syria

We don't know much about what is currently happening in Syria and what meaning it has. HTS could turn out to be a better administrator of the Syrian ethnic mixture than Assad, and that would not be difficult. Assad could disappear into the exile in a magnificent series of Datschen in Moscow, while his hollow autocracy could quickly expire.

The past 13 years of Syria have been so brutal that the country urgently needs stability. But they have also proven how unreachable peace can be and how deep suffering can go.