Ukrainian reality: brutal trump development that was feared

Ukrainian reality: brutal trump development that was feared

In the past few months, Ukraine and her NATO allies have considered a victory of Donald Trump's victory in the United States. They juggled with the presentation of a strong US president who could appear as an even harder ally than someone who could bring an advantageous peace as a trade negotiator, or as someone who has new perspectives on a tiring war.

The reality of a Trump climbing for Ukraine

However, these considerations proved to be a deceptive illusion. The path that lies ahead of Kyiv is extremely challenging. What Donald Trump's presidency actually means for Ukraine should no longer be a lasting question. Trump has announced that he ended the war "in 24 hours", but without explaining how. In addition, he said that "Zelensky should never have allowed this war to begin", and described him as "one of the best sellers I have ever seen" who occurs $ 100 billion every time you visit the congress.

Trump and his foreign policy

yesterday's statements have turned out to be exaggerated and now offer the distorted image through which the elected president of the United States has considered the greatest conflict in Europe since the Nazis. Trump could appoint a cabinet that easily adapts the speed or tone of its instincts, but ultimately he wants to withdraw from these conflicts. From a strategic point of view, the Ukraine war has so far offered the Pentagon to weaken the Pentagon to weaken its second largest opponent without American life being endangered. For Trump, however, this is an abomination: expensive military commitment abroad and the endangerment of Russia's President Vladimir Putin.

The reaction of the Kremlin and future developments

The initial reaction of the Kremlin-that relationships between the United States and Russia could not get worse under the bid administration-certainly indicates a certain joy. According to various analyzes, the coming year will be a careful gambling for Russia. Moscow has positioned troops in the hills for the military nodes of Ukraine in Donbass to put pressure on Kiev in the Donetsk area this winter.

A success in Donetsk could clear the way to big cities such as Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, which suddenly make the Ukrainian capital very vulnerable and could probably shift the war balancing in favor of the Russians. But the watch ticks for Russia's efforts. Western officials have indicated that the loss rate - possibly 1,200 dead or injured a day - is not wearable without further large, unpopular Russian mobilization and that Moscow could get serious bottlenecks in armaments production and ammunition next year.

Putin's strategy and the Trump presidency

Putin has bet on Trump's victory in the past few months because he relies on the fact that Trump remains a man of instincts - isolationally and suspicious of America's long -term alliances. Trump’s impressively behavior, especially with complex and time -consuming topics such as foreign conflicts, could have devastating consequences for Ukraine. He prefers quick solutions and a policy of pulling off, such as the withdrawal from Afghanistan or the direct dialogue with the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.

The challenges for Ukraine in the face of Trump's re -election

The associated effects will be noticeable in the coming weeks. I remember the massive setback of morality among Ukrainian troops when the US congress blocked military help for about six months. On the front, soldiers said that they would have to give up their positions without support, even if they knew that the bid administration was basically behind them. Now they are faced with the situation that some help from the Pentagon and European NATO allies will continue to flow, but the Trump administration has very probably positioned itself hostile to Kiev.

The geopolitical implications of Trump's politics

Further challenges are added because Trump moves into the White House, possibly one of the most dangerous times for Kiev since the beginning of the war. Analyzes show that Ukraine lost terrain at an almost outrageous pace in October. Clausure villages, which are insignificant in themselves, add up to a strategic setback that makes the east acutely vulnerable.

NATO policy had a fundamental mistake for a long time because the bid administration was not willing to arm Ukraine so strongly that Russia could be beaten militarily, out of fear of escalation. Instead, Allianz expects that Ukraine can stand in the hope that Putin will ultimately collapse. This is the messy contradiction that is in the heart of support for Kiev, but better than the demand for a capitulation of Ukraine.

The future of Ukraine under Trump

without fighting the will - the belief that the battle is profitable - it is almost impossible to expect from the Ukrainians to remain in a trench or to meet their tank or their tanks towards the fatal fire of the enemy positions. Nobody wants to be the last soldier to die in a war and nobody wants to risk their life to protect a family that will probably live under Russian occupation anyway.

Trump's victory could also complicate the position of Zelensky. For years Zelensky - to paraphrase - was an outstanding seller of the Ukrainian thing. Now an enormous pressure from Trump's first term in office is on him when he was pushed by Trump to examine the bidding family. Can Zelensky still be the seller that Ukraine needs? Is a fresh face in Bankova more able to obtain military help or to conclude a sustainable peace treaty?

The long-term consequences of a trump-led peace

Even those who are tired of the Ukraine War-be it allies from Kiev or soldiers on the front-should not hug the idea of a trump-supported settlement. Moscow demonstrated in Syria in 2013 and in Ukraine in 2015 that it is negotiating to gain time to prepare or realize their military goals. Putin will accept any territorial profits that he can consolidate - he already has the profits at the negotiating table. But after that he will regroup and don't stop. He sold the war in Germany as Russia's struggle against the entire NATO and cannot afford to withdraw.

The teachings of war

A crucial teaching from this war is considerably attacked. In the past two years, Putin's most violent opponent has promoted the central idea that we no longer have to fear Russia; The Kremlin would have fueled the fear of its huge bear as a psychological weapon to compensate for its military weakness. The unexpected resistance of Ukraine has shown that this fear was unfounded and that Moscow had difficulty defeating a neighbor who had previously mocked to fight.

Now a Trump-White house could ask the world to accept an apparently similar, but terrifyingly different view: that the West shouldn't be afraid of Russia because it is not really serious. That would be Putin's greatest achievement and the most painful weakness of the West.