Russia's surprising ceasefire: the strategy behind it

Russia's surprising ceasefire: the strategy behind it

The announcement of an immediate ceasefire for Easter came at a time that indicates the growing skepticism of our allies compared to the Kremlin. The way the message was transmitted - quickly, one -sided and without prior coordination - leaves a lot of space for doubts about the seriousness of Moscow on peace issues. These distrust was increased when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump had recently asked for a clear sign that the Kremlin actually wanted peace.

The reaction of Ukraine and practical challenges

The announcement by President Vladimir Putin at first glance looked like an attempt to delight Trump. But the rash and impractical details of this explanation are so devastating that it is likely that Putin only uses her to give the impression that Kiev is not interested in an end to his aggression. For the Ukrainian armed forces, it will be a logistical nightmare to abruptly stop the fight. There could be violent fights on many front lines, while the command to end the conflict is issued. Such an armistice usually requires detailed preparation and coordination.

spread of misinformation

misinformation could also confuse the emergency services, both with regard to the implementation of the ceasefire as well as with regard to possible violations and their report. It is possible that this short -term ceasefire is a rare sign that both sides can hire violence for a short time, but it is more likely that both parties will use misunderstandings and injuries to the agreement to present the respective opponent as unreliable. According to the Ukrainian officials, Russian attacks in border areas continued to occur on Saturday evening.

complexities and distrust

The current ceasefire, which is limited to 30 days, which refers to the energy infrastructure, was created under completely chaotic conditions. While the White House announced that "energy and infrastructure" was recorded, the Kremlin said that the attacks on the "energy infrastructure" immediately stopped, where the Ukraine stated that the ceasefire started a week later than Moscow. The implementation of this agreement is characterized by distrust and accusations of violations.

comparison to previous declarations

In January 2023, Moscow made a similar one -sided explanation to request a day of peace for Orthodox - a step that Kiev and Western leaders stopped at the time as a strategic break for military purposes. A real ceasefire requires negotiations with the opponent and careful preparation so that it becomes effective. The sudden hurry behind this announcement only seems to serve to comply with the demands of the White House for a sign of the willingness to negotiate Moscow. This could sometimes continue to feed the Pro-Moskau perspective of the conflict and could lead to complications for Ukraine if they are inevitably accused of injury, which Washington may be considered good will.

conclusion about the effects on diplomacy

Ultimately, this short, probably theoretical and purely rhetorical ceasefire will cause more damage to the diplomatic role in the coming months in a three -year war than he will support them.