Putin will not negotiate regardless of the US election winner

Putin will not negotiate regardless of the US election winner

Russia observes US politics extremely well. That was the message of President Wolodymyr Selenskyj to journalists in Kiev when he answered the question of Moscow's willingness to negotiate: "That depends on the elections in the United States," he said.

US policy in upheaval

When Kamala is chosen Harris, it is expected to continue the policy of the bid administration, which despite some friction points, such as the use of western weapons for attacks deep in Russia, supports Ukraine. In contrast, Donald Trump indicated that he will end the support for Kiev's war efforts and claims that he could end the war "in one day". The conditions of a peace plan, which was indicated by his vice presidential candidate JD Vance, are striking the wish list of Putin.

analyzes on the willingness to negotiate Russia

American politics stands by a crossroads, but experts agree that this will not necessarily lead to a turning point in the peace negotiations. "What [Trump] thinks what he can do and what lever he has is unclear at the moment - but I don't think it's a quick process," said Thomas Graham, an expert for Russian foreign policy and a respected scholarship on Council on Foreign Relations .

A reduction in US aid could, however, lead to changes on the battlefield, experts argue. With every possible future president, Putin will endeavor to use what he sees as a political dysfunction in the United States, and to take advantage of "cracks in the unity of the West", said Graham.

geopolitical factors and their effects

These cracks could appear in the form of a Trump administration that reduces the US aids and a lower role in the NATO occupy, or in a split US congress, including factors. Financial means of pressure on European allies also play a role, as well as cracks within NATO, with pro-Russian leaders in member states such as Hungary and Slovakia.

"Without a Western unity and without a clear demonstration that the West and Ukraine have a common vision of what you want to achieve ... Putin has no reason to rethink his strategy in Ukraine," added Graham.

The scope of the conflict

The scope of the war is so great that a simple negotiation between Moscow and Kiev is probably not sufficient to solve the situation. Experts argue that it is a much more comprehensive conflict between Russia and the West. For Putin, "Ukraine is only a means to an end, and the goal is to further restrict the influence of the United States in international affairs," said John Lough from London Think Tank Chatham House.

"If [Trumps] explains to him what is really going on here and that China plays a key role in the support of Russia to continue this war ... he could suddenly develop very strongly that he is not so good," said Lough, and added that Beijing will interpret any concessions "as a further sign of the United States' weakness.

The strategy of Russia in the war

Ukraine is already inferior to numbers, and Putin seems ready to accept a high number of victims. According to NATO, more than 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded. "The enemy reinforces its troops to drive the Ukrainian armed forces out of the Kursk region at all times," said Oleh Shiryaev, commander of the 225th separate storm battalion, which on the surprise operation of the Ukraine against the Russian border crossing. "Russia's most important element in this war is the number of its troops - these are massive attacks and offensive actions. This happens at all parts of the front."

Need for additional support for Ukraine

In the Zaporizhzhia region, another commander of the Ukrainian secret service said that Russia tried to assert themselves in the gray areas of the front through the mass use of soldiers as cannon food. The officer, who only wants to be mentioned under his nickname "Bankir" (accountant), said CNN that a complex system of fastenings in Zaporizhzhia helps Ukraine to defend the front line.

But Kyiv knows that this is not enough. On Wednesday, the Ukrainian parliament voted to extend war law and compulsory military service by another 90 days. The convening of an additional 160,000 people is planned, as the National Security Council announced.

The Ukrainian soldiers who spoke to CNN emphasized that Russia also has other advantages, such as countless drones, expensive aircraft and more vehicles that enable the fight in wet autumn and winter weather.

Ukraine needs support for both your infantry and your equipment. "We have ammunition, but as artilleryists say there are never enough," said Vitaliy Milovidov, spokesman for the 15th brigade of the National Guard, who is fighting in the eastern Donetsk, where the Russian armed forces continue to make profits.

If a possible Trump administration shortens the US aid, Ukraine would be increasingly inferior. The European nations are already trying to increase the production of ammunition for Ukraine to prevent a step backwards, .

That is why Putin's strategy also seems to be targeting the Ukrainian population. Russia has repeated Infrastructure attacked . It also severely damaged the Ukrainian energy system, which exacerbates the problems for everyday Ukrainians who see a winter without heating and water.

Analysts are certain that the Ukrainian population is exhausted, but they don't seem to be ready to arise in any way. After the massacres of civilians in Butscha and Mariupol, the brutal treatment of Ukrainian prisoners in Russian detention and the forced deportation of Ukrainian children through the Russian state, they know the cruel realities of the Russian occupation.

Selenskyj, meanwhile continues to demand support from both parties. "If Trump only wants Ukraine to give everything up and thus achieve a deal with Russia, I don't think that is possible," he said on Thursday.