Leading politicians pay homage to Trump and fear his changes

Leading politicians pay homage to Trump and fear his changes

In the hours after Donald Trumps re-election a confidency developed in foreign headquarters. Guide from Paris to Jerusalem to Riad and beyond began to publish congratulations online and to instruct their ambassadors in Washington to find any way to get in touch with the new president.

reactions of the international community

The hectic search for contact was not hidden from Trump's sleepy consultants in Florida, who were pursuing who reported in what order.

While the world processes the reality of a further Trump presidency, the central features of its approach to the world become clear. Transactional, personality-based and unpredictable-the Trump doctrine has made both foreign leaders and experienced American security consultants exhausted and nervous in four chaotic years.

The challenges of the new term

Nothing in Trump's election campaign indicates that his approach could change. In contrast to the previous years, however, the world is now "on flames", as Trump likes to say, and he has promised to extinguish the flames. So he to end the war in the Ukraine within 24 hours to bring in the Middle East while he is at the same time incorporating American enemies in North Korea and Iran.

In addition, he plans comprehensive new tariffs against China, checks proven American defense alliances such as NATO and is looking for countries that are ready to absorb the migrants he promised massively.

uncertain plans and strategies

How he wants to achieve one of these goals is uncertain. As a candidate, he did not respond to details of his plans, let alone that he had spoken to American allies about how to tackle the problems together.

What was clear, however, is his distrust of American alliances that form the backbone of the western world order - the same order that President Joe Biden tried to restore when he took over the presidency of Trump four years ago and explained: "America is back."

instead of helping the United States to achieve their goals, Trump described the allies as parasitic stress. This became particularly clear when he encouraged Russia in relation to NATO countries who do not fulfill their defense spending "to do whatever they want".

the impedictability of international relationships

This makes his impending return to the global stage one of the most unpredictable factors in an already dangerous world and has caused foreign leaders to stop and at the same time search for ways to find access.

Even before Trump's victory was secured, Fiihrer wrote their congratulations on X. The first to do this, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a friend of Trump, who later spoke to the President-Elect, and French President Emmanuel Macron, whose relationship with Trump was heavily burdened during his first term.

urgent efforts for discussions

While the leaders Trump align their congratulations, their helpers plan intensively on how they can organize possible meetings with the President Elect in the coming months. World leaders are open to all options, including trips to New York or Trump's Mar-A-Lago in Florida. Many of them strive to meet Trump's inauguration in January.

The foreign leaders rely on their experiences with Trump during his first presidency, as flattery and personal attention to positive results. A foreign diplomat said that there was a better understanding of Trump compared to 2016, which led to the congratulatory messages even before the race was officially decided.

The relevance of international relationships

The diplomat found that the leaders are pursuing a model that was determined by the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who immediately traveled to New York after Trump's victory in 2016 to meet him in the Trump Tower and brought him a set of gilded golf club as a congratulatory gift.

The model you avoid is the one that was followed by the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who chose a direct approach and spoke to Trump, without much flattering. However, it was still unclear how or whether some of the authoritarian leaders, who opened Trump openly during his term in office, would convey their congratulations.

The challenges by China and Russia

The most important relationship that Trump now has to maintain is that it is to China's XI Jinping, which he referred to as a "very good friend", but with which his relationship was increasingly tense. Trump had started a trade war with China at the beginning of his term and regularly described Covid-19 as the "China virus".

Since Trump's last term, Xi has deepened his relationship with Putin through meetings and visits, which leads to a dynamic relationship that interpret the bidding official as a challenge for American authority. On Wednesday, XI Trump congratulated on a phone call, two sources familiar with the conversation.

outlook on Trump's foreign policy

As an American official, trying to assess whether XI has short -term ambivalent plans for Taiwan, the self -managed island claimed by Beijing, indicated Trump last month that a combination of drastic tariffs and general unpredictability could possibly prevent an invasion.

"He respects me and he knows that I am crazy," Trump told the Wall Street Journal editorial board when he was asked whether he would use military violence to protect Taiwan.

And that is exactly what Trump's foreign policy could summarize in one sentence. Veterans of Trump's first term describe a foreign policy approach that is not based on the procedures that most US presidents have taken to make decisions in the field of world politics. Trump developed his policy ad hoc, occasionally based on conversations that his consultants later learned later, and announced his decisions on social media.

strengthen the confidence in Trump's team

When he returns to the Oval Office, people around Trump expect to choose people who are willing to better implement their directives, regardless of how chaotic they are decided or transmitted. It is quite possible that some veterans from Trump's first term in office could return in other positions, including Mike Pompeo, who served as Foreign Minister; Keith Kellogg, who acted as Vice President Mike Pence as a national security advisor; Or Richard Grenell, Trump's ambassador in Germany, who later served as a provisional director of the national secret services.

Brian Hook, a high-ranking Foreign Ministry Official officer during the first Trump administration, will probably lead Trump's transition team in the Foreign Ministry, three of the matter. However, Trump will also look for consultants outside of his first term who are ready to go beyond the borders when his team did so at the time, and are less concerned about breaking international norms or rules.

Anyone who chooses Trump for high national security positions will be crucial for the type of foreign policy it will implement, especially in Ukraine, where the Republican party is somewhat split in terms of the best use of American support.

"It is difficult to predict Trump's politics in the war because his team consists of people with very different views," said John Herbst, Senior Director of the Eurasia Center of the Atlantic Council and former US ambassador in Ukraine. "A group advocates drastically reducing the help for Ukraine - a view that many combine with Trump. This group is naive with regard to the Kremlin policy towards the United States - Putin openly explains that the United States are number one among the enemies - and unsuspectingly about the risk of a Kremlin victory in Ukraine."

"The other group recognizes the threat to US interests in Europe and elsewhere when Washington lets Ukraine down," continued Herbst. "This group would pursue a Reaganese policy of peace through strength, and in contrast to the bida team, they would not be intimidated by Putin's nuclear behavior.

The reporting of CNN was supplemented by Alayna Treene.