Allies of Ukraine in chaos, while Trump-Diplomacy moves closer

Allies of Ukraine in chaos, while Trump-Diplomacy moves closer

After almost thousand days of the hardest conflict in Europe since the Nazis, the first steps towards peace talks in Chancellor Olaf Scholz President Vladimir Putin ended an almost two-year phase in which important NATO countries isolated the Kremlin chief.

reactions to Scholz 'call

This development was perceived as an extremely negative signal for the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj. Within 72 hours, the White House finally agreed to approve Selenskyj's request for the authority to use ATACMS long -range missiles in Russia. Selenskyj accused the Chancellor so that a " pandoras box " To have opened and emphasized: "It is extremely important that (Putin) weakens its isolation." The next day, however, Selenskyj also seemed to recognize a movement in the direction of discussions by explaining that the war would "end" if the designated US President Trump comes into office.

Europe's diplomacy and the pressure on NATO

Scholz reported that the conversation with Putin showed that the tough positions of the Russian guide did not change in relation to Ukraine. However, he emphasized the need for Europe to speak to Putin, especially if Trump was also ready. The one -hour conversation marked a return to diplomacy in a conflict that has lasted for a decade, even if it included the familiar statement that it was not yet time to negotiate.

dynamics within the western alliance

The call caused unrest in the western alliance, which increasingly worried about the outcome of the conflict in the light of Trumps Wahl . A western civil servant noted that a "tension in society" could be felt in the capitals of the West, while waiting for Trump's inauguration. Another official said that the talks between the Germans and Putin had met with negative response among the Ukrainian allies.

future prospects and strategies

The decision of the bid administration to allow Atacms rockets against Russian territory reflects the growing feeling of escalation in the war, even if peace is in sight and try to improve all sides to improve their position before a trump presidency. Experts believe that Scholz 'commitment is also motivated by upcoming German elections, since he wants to enter the election campaign as a "peace pier" to win over voters who may otherwise tend to the pro-Moscow opposition.

The uncertainty about future agreements

The uncertainty about Trump's future course in terms of support for Ukraine and peace negotiations was considered critical within NATO. A Ukrainian intelligence officer also expressed that it was dangerous to make predictions at the moment and hoped for the best. While most analysts speculate that a possible deal could include any freezing of the front lines, the question remains how far Russia is willing to make concessions.

The upcoming peace under Trump

The details of a possible Peace Plan from Trump remain unclear, and analysts indicate that the designated president has not yet formulated a strategy. Trump has repeatedly claimed that he has the could terminate war on one day he would achieve this. His national security advisor Mike Waltz has said little about politics since the assumption of the post, but pointed out that a "fight’ as long as it takes "against a greater power is a recipe for failure."

Trump's approach and expectations

Trump supporters have partly tried to dispel the idea that the designated president would strive for peace at all costs. Kurt Volker, Trump's special representative for Ukraine during his first term, said that Trump's first measure had to be to demonstrate strength so that Putin realizes that it is not worth continuing the fight. "Then you can clarify the details," he said, pointing out that Trump has often emphasized: "Peace through strength."