Ukraine faces a brutal Trump reality

Ukraine faces a brutal Trump reality

For months, Ukraine and their NATO allies thought about the hypothetical possibility of Donald Trump's victory. They juggled with the presentation of a strong US president who might be a Toughher ally, or a dealmaker who could bring cheap peace. In the end, these considerations were nothing more than a calming fiction. The path that lies ahead of Kyiv is extremely dark. There is no doubt about what a Trump presidency would mean for Ukraine. Trump claimed that he could end the war "in 24 hours", but how, he left open. He also criticized President Selenskyj and described him as "one of the largest sellers I have ever seen", who got $ 100 billion with every visit to the congress.

The reality of a Trump presidency

The fact that these statements are exaggerated hardly plays a role at this moment. They are the distorted perspective through which the elected president of the United States will perceive the greatest conflict in Europe since the National Socialists. Trump could appoint a cabinet that only easily adjusts the rhythm or tone of its instincts, but in the end he wants to stay out of the matter. Strategically speaking, the war in Ukraine offered the Pentagon comparatively favorable opportunities to weaken its second largest opponent without American losses, but that contradicts two of his dislikes from the first term: costly military engagement abroad and the annoyance of Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Russia's reaction to the Trump hopes

The initial reaction of the Kremlin to the fact that US Russian relationships under President Joe Biden could not get worse is certainly rethought. The coming months could be a difficult bet for Russia, since Moscow has positioned troops at the altitude around the military centers of Ukraine in Donbass - near Pokrowsk, Kurachowe and Chasiv Yar - to put Kiev under more pressure this winter.

The geopolitical implications

A success in Donetsk could open the way to important cities such as Dnipro and Saporischschja, which would suddenly be very vulnerable to the Ukrainian capital and could tip the war weight. Nevertheless, the watch ticks for Russia's efforts. Western officials have indicated that the number of cases of the Kremlin of possibly 1,200 deaths or wounded are not sustainable per day, unless another unpopular mobilization in Russia is. Next year Moscow could experience a real bottleneck in armored production and ammunition.

Trump's unpredictable foreign policy

Trump, known for his unpredictability, has a preference for quick solutions, be it withdrawal from Afghanistan or the meeting with the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in Singapore. It remains unclear whether he really dealt with the topic of Ukraine or whether he just doesn't want to talk about the war anymore. Regardless of the speed or details of its approaches, the damage noticeable in the coming weeks will not be ignorable. Memories of the massive moral loss among the Ukrainian troops last December, when the US military aid was blocked for six months, are still fresh. Front troops reported that they may have to give up their positions without this help, even if they knew that the bid administration was in principle behind them.

The uncertainty of the Ukrainian defense

Trump has entered the White House in the perhaps most dangerous phase for Kiev since the beginning of the war. Analyzes of the front line show that Ukraine lost ground in October at a previously unmatched pace. These small villages may seem insignificant, but add up to a strategic setback that makes the east in no way.

NATO and the challenge of support for Ukraine

Within NATO there was a political mistake for a long time; The bid administration did not want to arm Ukraine so that Russia could be defeated militarily, for fear of escalation. However, Biden could not allow Russia to win. Instead, Ukraine was asked to hold out in the hope that Putin would finally collapse. This was a chaotic contradiction in the heart of support for Kiev, better than the request for surrender.

The influence on Selenskyj's position

A victory of Trump could also complicate the position of Selenskyj. For years, Selenskyj - to paraphrase - was above all an outstanding seller of the Ukrainian thing. Now heavy luggage from Trump's first term in office is on him when he was at the center of Trump's requests to examine the bidding family. Can Selenskyj continue to be a convincing seller? Is a new face in Bankowa more able to maintain military aid or to conclude a sustainable peace treaty?

The dangers of a Trump deal

Those who are tired of the Ukraine War-be it as an ally Kiev or as a front soldier-should not hug the idea of ​​a deal supported by Trump. Moscow already demonstrated in Syria in 2013 and in Ukraine 2015 that it is negotiating to win time for military goals. Putin will accept territorial profits that he can bring to the negotiating table, but after that he will regroup and not stop. He propagated the war in Germany as a confrontation with the entire NATO forces. An overheated Russian economy, an astronomical number of fatalities and the changeover of the Russian industry to support this alleged struggle cannot be easily undone. Putin increases the war to keep its power.

The relentless urge after regional influence

This is evident in its maximum behavior towards the neighbors of Russia in the past few months. The recent unrest in Georgia and Moldova, where Prorussian forces have challenged pro-European movements, could lead to an even greater intervention from Russia in the coming months. It is unlikely that Putin suddenly gives up his hunger for regional influence. This war began because he occupied Ukraine and wanted to keep it out of NATO and the European Union. The Russian blood, which has been spoiled for almost three years, probably requires a greater victory than just securing the territories already won.

The teachings of war

A crucial teaching of the war, on the other hand, is suspended: in the past two years Putin's most bitter opponent has represented the central idea that we no longer have to fear Russia; The Kremlin intensified the fear of its threatening bear as a psychological weapon to conceal the military weakness. The unexpected resistance of Ukraine showed that this fear was unfounded and that Moscow troubled to defeat a neighbor who was once mocked to fight.

Now a Trump-Weiße-Haus could ask the world to accept an apparently similar, but terrifyingly different claim: that the West should not be afraid of Russia because it does not really do much damage. That would be Putin's greatest victory and the greatest weakness of the West.