Trump influences the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Trump influences the Russia-Ukraine conflict

There is no doubt that the decisive struggle in the Ukraine War is currently not taking place in the sky over Kyiv or Dnipro, where the Russian drone attacks have increased significantly in recent days. Even the slow but constant progress of the Russian army on the brutal front lines in eastern Ukraine will not decide how the conflict, which is now in the third year, ultimately ends.

The decisive struggle for Trump's attention

The central dispute between the war-leading parties and their allies is about the ear of US President Donald Trump, who seems to be increasingly frustrated with the efforts to impart peace. A planned phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin could therefore be of crucial importance.

Russia and Ukraine compete for Trump's favor

Both Moscow and Kiev strive to make it clear that the other represents the real blockade for peace. Both hope to steer Trump's changeable opinion, at least for a certain time. European officers have announced that they also speak to Trump before calling Putin, as there are fears that Trump's view of the conflict depends on whom he last spoke.

Trump's critical statements based on the Papal Business

Only last week, Trump expressed some of his sharpest criticisms towards Putin after a conversation with the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj at the funeral of Pope Francis. He condemned the Russian President about the rocket attack on Kiev and emphasized that he was not sure whether Putin was actually interested in the end of the war.

Putin's strategic considerations

During the phone call, Putin, who refused to accept a 30-day ceasefire requested by Trump, will have the president's ear on his own. He could bring in all persuasion and strategic arguments that he believes that they will work best.

Trump's role in the peace talks

Trump and Putin seem to share an unshakable conviction that only they have personal authority and skills to end the Ukraine war, while the Europeans and the Ukrainians will ultimately do what they are told. The rather sobering talks in Istanbul last week, the first direct negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators for years, also seem to reinforce Trump in his role in getting involved in peace efforts.

The concerns of Ukraine

One of the greatest concerns of Ukraine is that the two presidents may work out their own peace plan on the phone and then try to enforce Putin's conditions. Trump has announced that he was talking to his Ukrainian counterpart Selenskyj after calling Putin.

Trump's influence on Russia

However,

Trump also has pressure against Russia if he wants to use them. In the face of increasing losses and a tense economy, the Kremlin would certainly want to avoid, Trump, who feels rejected, to push in an offensive support for Ukraine.

blockades in the peace process

The basic problem, however, remains that neither Russia nor Ukraine are currently willing to accept the minimum conditions of the other or to compromise that would be satisfactory for both sides. However, this does not mean that conversations - whether directly or on the phone - are pointless. These can at least show how far the two sides are actually apart.

The continuation of the conflict

What this may implicitly implies is that even under the pressure of the United States, even after a direct phone call with President Trump, both Moscow and Kiev could still decide to continue the war.

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