Bad news for Ukraine: Russia is also under pressure
Bad news for Ukraine: Russia is also under pressure
The bad news does not tear off. Wherever Kyiv looks, Moscow seems to have the upper hand. Russia is progressing on decisive points along the front lines in East and Southeastsucraine and repeatedly unleashs waves of Air attacks in Ukrainian cities.
Russian offensive in the Course area
At the same time, Moscow is preparing a counter -offensive in the Southern Russian region of Kursk, which was the only significant military success of Kiev this year. According to President Wolodymyr Selenskyj, Russia almost 50,000 troops in Kursk, a number that has recently been arrived North Korean soldiers was increased.
tactical advantages of the Russians
"The Russians currently have the initiative on the front lines, they have successfully used tactical advantages and strengthen them," said George Barros from the Institute for the Study of War in an interview with CNN. Barros, who heads the teams for Russia and geodata intelligence at the conflict monitoring institute in Washington, emphasized that the advantage of Russia on the battlefield makes it impossible for Ukraine to prepare for a possible counter-offensive.
The situation around Kupiansk
The situation is particularly critical of Kupiansk. The key town in the northeast again faces the risk of falling to Russia after it was freed from Ukraine in September 2022 after more than six months of Russian occupation. Kupiansk is located at the intersection of important supply streets and on the Oskil River, which forms an important defense feature in the region. A loss of Kupiansk would make it easier for Russia to continue to penetrate the Charkiw region, which would continue to put pressure on the second largest city in Ukraine, which is hit almost daily by Russian drones and rockets.
difficult defense situation in Kurakhove
The Russian news agency TASS reported on Friday that Russian troops entered the suburbs of the city, with Ukrainian officials insisting that Kupiansk is still fully under control of their armed forces. At the same time, Ukraine is struggling to stop Russia further south, around the city of Kurakhove, which has been surrounded by three sides for months. This week Selenskyj described the situation around Kurakhove as the “most difficult area” of the front line.
courses of the Russian offensive
Although Russia is apparently on the verge of taking the city in the coming days or weeks, Barros said that this could not be a strategically significant loss for Kiev, since it will not significantly impair Ukraine's ability to defend the broader region. In the past few months, Ukraine has run a bitter struggle in the region, even if it had to accept some areas of the area.
Russian failures and strategic resources
Since Avdiivka was taken in early 2024, Russia was only able to penetrate deeper into Ukrainian territory in around 30 to 40 kilometers (18 to 25 miles). In view of the enormous costs for the Russian military, this is a very low progress. Moscow lost about five divisions of mechanized devices in the Pokrovsk area last year, which corresponds to many hundreds of tanks and armored passenger vans based on the assessment of the ISW using visual evidence from the battlefield.
War of wear
Since the beginning of the comprehensive invasion and despite the support of its allies, Ukraine has always been in a defensive position in terms of material and manpower. Russia has more weapons, more ammunition and more people. President Vladimir Putin continues to pursue the strategy of slowly murving Ukraine by overwhelming it with better firepower and higher expenses and taking advantage of his western allies.
economic stress and recruitment problems
However, analysts have pointed out that Putin has a limited time window to achieve this goal, given the enormous losses that Russia suffers in order to make even the smallest progress. The pressure that the conflict has exerted on the Russian economy is obviously growing. Russia has massively increased its military spending in the past two years, and the economy shows signs of overheating: inflation remains high and companies have to struggle with workers. In order to control the situation, the Russian central bank increased interest rates to 21 % in October, the highest level in decades.The future of support for Ukraine
It is largely dependent on the willingness of their allies whether Ukraine can benefit from these problems - and the return of former President Donald Trump into the White House certainly raises a big question mark about this support. Selenskyj explained this week that the war would end "faster" as soon as Trump leads the presidency again. "If the international western coalition, including the United States, continues to support the Ukrainians in the next 12 to 18 months, there will be opportunities to really disturb the way the Russians finance this war," said Barros. "(You) can decide whether the Russians win or lose."
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