Russia also benefits from chaos by losing a MENA partner
Russia also benefits from chaos by losing a MENA partner
In the heart of the complex relationship of the Kremlin and the Middle East, there has been a tense situation for a long time. On the one hand, Russia has traditionally built up strong alliances and economic influence in this region. On the other hand, the country benefits as one of the largest oil and gas producers in the world when there are any disturbances in the energy of rich the Middle East and the markets are unsettled.
Current developments and the role of Irans
This is exactly what is going on, while the Kremlin watches how its Iranian ally through Israeli air raids is significantly weakened, while Russia benefits from it. At first glance, Russia has a lot to lose. Iran was a useful “strategic partner” for the Kremlin, which not only rejects the western values and its influence, but also provided the Russian military night with numerous Shahed drones that are used for the incessant attacks on Ukraine.
The importance of Iranian support
Although a large part of the drone production has now been shifted to Russia, the lack of reliable Iranian deliveries could soon be noticeable, since Ukrainian drones attack Russian production facilities deep behind the front lines. In addition, there is a painful feeling of humiliation for the Kremlin, to be passed on, such as Allies in the Middle East suffer from massive attacks without Russia being able to intervene.
Kreml's reaction to the conflict
Of course Moscow published the strongest explanations and condemned Israel's attacks on Iran's nuclear systems as "illegally", whereby the Kremlin emphasized that these attacks create "unacceptable threats to international security". In addition, western countries were accused of taking advantage of the situation for political self -promotion. Nevertheless, Russia's supposed alliance with Iran has never included the defense of the Islamic Republic, and there was no offer from the Kremlin for military support.
consequences of a possible regime infestation
A fall of the Iranian regime, which is apparently a goal of Israel, would rely on the ever longer list of lost alliances and clientele states of the Kremlin, which also includes Iraq, Libya and more recently Syria. But there is another aspect that does not make the situation for Moscow appear quite as dramatic. The current conflict in the Middle East comes to a certain extent.
economic uptake and diplomatic opportunities
of the considerable financial uptake due to the rising oil prices benefits Russia. The conflict between Iran and Israel also opens doors to new diplomatic possibilities for the Kremlin, which has been internationally isolated for years due to its war in Ukraine. Russia still sees itself as an important player in international diplomacy and calls for a place at the top with the USA and China.
Putin's role as a potential mediator
The Kremlin now has a topic in which he can work with the USA productively, and could be an indispensable partner to stabilize the region again. As the only important political leader with direct connections to Iranians, Israelis and Americans, Russia's President Vladimir Putin plays his central role and signals his willingness to act as a mediator and to position Russia as an important power factor in the Middle East.
new diplomatic occasions
In a recent phone call to the White House, Putin President Donald Trump reminded that Russia traditionally is an ally of the United States on questions of the Iranian nuclear program - a serious indication that he is open to a new partnership. Apparently the White House is receptive to this idea: After the conversation, Trump expressed the willingness to consider Putin as a potential mediator in conflict.
What does that mean for Ukraine?
The conflict opens up opportunities to expand relationships between Washington and Moscow beyond the Ukraine conflict. The fate of Iran and its nuclear ambitions have unexpectedly come back into focus - in addition to the Arctic, economic cooperation and spatial research as further areas of common interest. For the Kremlin, and perhaps also for President Trump, this is of great benefit, but not for the stressed Ukraine.
With an exciting crisis in the nearby east The global attention suddenly distracts from the ongoing war in Ukraine, where intensified Russian drone and rocket strokes
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